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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#271

Post by ineedasername »

SEJeff wrote: post #209
sgift wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Goodenough and his team aren't quite finished with the new battery. They've only created the glass-based anode. But they're working out kinks with the cathode, and soon they'll be able to make some large-scale cells. This seems like one of these sentences which you kind of miss on the first read and many years later when you wonder "what happened to that wonder battery?" "Remember the cathode we thought was almost…

But when they do, Tesla will be the first and only company to have it! Think about that for a moment. It makes it harder (read: more expensive) for the competition, when Tesla is already making better batteries (per independent analysts) than all of their competition.

If they do. Not when. And there are any number of other promising areas of battery research that another manufacturer might bring to fruition and would eliminate this competitive advantage. If we're speculating on breakthroughs, that's a sword that cuts both ways.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#272

Post by windexh8er »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #195
SEJeff wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the Navigate on Autopilot that now will change lanes on its own (without driver input) isn't a step towards full autonomy? There are currently zero other companies that have anything as close in normal vehicles, zero. (Waymo is too niche and only really works in perfect weather like in AZ, so I'm counting them out.)

1 step forward on changing lanes automatically, 2 steps backwards on driving into concrete dividers automatically and killing the driver.

> 1 step forward on changing lanes automatically, 2 steps backwards on driving into concrete dividers automatically and killing the driver.

People die in cars: true. Telsa features have played a role in human death: also true. However it's overly simplistic to point a finger at a popular (to love and hate) brand. However, human ignorance has also played a role in those deaths. Tesla isn't fully autonomous and they make no claims their cars are today. This isn't the same as making futures claims. So while Tesla features have failed you also turn a blind eye in your statement to the lives saved. Those are less well publicized because they are not as interesting with regard to headlines.

How many lives saved quantifies the risk of loss of life? While I'm not saying with hard data that Tesla has saved more lives than it's killed with features it provides, but if I were to wager a guess my money would be on the lives saved side of the tally.

The path to fully autonomous is a rocky one. There's so many things that will be huge hurdles the closer we get. But, take a step back. Look at the forest instead of a broken branch. We all benefit from these strides and mistakes overall. The media does a great job of removing all considerations of a story's context when it's convenient for a sensational article. Realize there is an ownership of the situation lacking in your argument. People die every day because of bad choices and mistakes of their own volition and those should be given a more equal weighting when armchair quarterbacking these types of positions.

Driver chose to ignore safe operational procedures of heavy machinery and died.

...is much different than...

Tesla car collides with wall, killing driver, while Autopilot engaged.

Both are true.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#273

Post by twblalock »

modzu wrote: post #227
Animats wrote: post #218

They had an order backlog, and they filled it. Now, like the rest of automotive, they're sales-limited. All the big US auto companies have been able to make more than they can sell since 1956. (In the spring of 1956, supply caught up with pent-up WWII demand. Then came the era of chrome.) Tesla is in a business where many customers just want to pay their money and drive away with a car. Not "preorder" and wait for mo…

if you're in the market for a new car what makes you think being able to get one immediately is a priority? a car is one of the largest investments an average person will make. i love that i'm not going to be hustled by a car salesman (the archetype of the sleazy conman) and can make decisions independently when buying a tesla. honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

> honestly a few months seems really reasonable given the time spent making the decision?

If your current car is not usable you don't have a few months. This does not just apply to people who drive beater cars -- your nice, well-maintained car could get totaled in an accident tomorrow and you'll need to get a new car.

Obviously it is not good to be car shopping in those circumstances but sometimes you don't have a choice. You could buy or lease a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt this afternoon, or you could wait several months for a Tesla.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#275

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

azhenley wrote: post #262
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. Not compared to gasoline, though.

Maybe. It forces me to take 30 minute breaks every 3-3.5 hours, which I have found far more enjoyable than what I did in my gasoline car (drive for 10 hours with only one five minute break). I quite like stopping at Tesla charging stations. They're generally in shopping areas with food and WiFi, and you can talk to other Tesla owners. It is like a new philosophy of traveling for me :)

You can do that with a gasoline vehicle if you'd like. Or not, if you'd rather spend your time at your actual destination.

Hey I'm all for Tesla improving the experience, it needs to be done, because the reality is the infrastructure is as important as the vehicle.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#276

Post by Wowfunhappy »

dustindiamond wrote: post #248
solean wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Audio controls are on the steering wheel (in the Model 3 at least)

It is a bit overkill, though, no? It seems every option is enumerated as its own physical switch, knob, or lever.

I haven't driven a car since I was a teenager, but isn't this desirable for an interface that needs to be operated by sense of touch alone? (So you can keep your eyes on the road.)

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#277

Post by gnicholas »

dustindiamond wrote: post #254
gnicholas wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only do ICE car companies not issue OTA software updates, some use the same software for driver assist features for years in a row. I had heard good things about Subaru's EyeSight system and went to check out the 2019s Outback. I was floored to learn that the system is no smarter than it was in 2017, when this version came out. Are they not learning from the millions of miles their customers have driven in the la…

I don’t think they designed the system to continually exfiltrate data to be used for further improvement of the technology. Not much LTE uploads is my guess. Tesla has so much more sensor data to guide engineering efforts with.

Even without LTE uploads, they could at least pull data down when vehicles are in for repairs, oil changes, etc. I realize they can't store infinite amounts of data on the vehicle, but they could definitely keep a little data about disengagements or other important events.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#278

Post by ajross »

twblalock wrote: post #268
ajross wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla builds more cars per quarter than Jaguar already. But yes, competition is (finally!) coming and that's a great thing.

Jaguar is part of Tata. If Tata gets good at manufacturing electric cars in large quantities it would be a big deal.

The point was more that Tesla has already scaled beyond the level where "these companies know how to build cars" is reasonable spin. Tesla's building plenty of cars, making money doing so, scaling rapidly, and can only be expected to be doing better still by the time those competitors arrive in the market. That's not to say that they won't be highly competetive cars, they might (I for one certainly hope they are). But you don't get to handwave away Tesla's existing success on the basis of production numbers.

Honestly... your argument is a year stale. The window on "Tesla can't scale" closed. They did.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#279

Post by gnicholas »

weaklearner wrote: post #260
gnicholas wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only do ICE car companies not issue OTA software updates, some use the same software for driver assist features for years in a row. I had heard good things about Subaru's EyeSight system and went to check out the 2019s Outback. I was floored to learn that the system is no smarter than it was in 2017, when this version came out. Are they not learning from the millions of miles their customers have driven in the la…

Another data-point is that I literally just went to talk by a researcher from Toyota's self-driving car group and they 1) mentioned some OTA updates they made on their auto-pilot features in the last several months. 2) talked about their data collection efforts from production cars- order of petabytes/day I don't know much about subaru but other companies are definitely integrating advanced driver assist features/upd…

Glad to hear this. I recently test-drove the new RAV4 Hybrid, which just came out. I was unimpressed by their "lane tracing" system, which seemed noticeably worse than the CRV's equivalent.

I would be much more likely to pull the trigger on the Toyota (which gets much better gas mileage, due to the hybrid powertrain) if there was a hope of software updates.

I am hesitant to spend $30,000 on a vehicle whose driver assist features are currently subpar, and will only fall further behind over the lifetime of the vehicle. Makes me just want to lease, despite being generally opposed to leasing.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#280

Post by quest88 »

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

Tesla just buys panasonic batteries (https://electrek.co/2018/07/31/tesla-gigafactory-panasonic-b...). The technology is kinda shit - why distract the driver with a touch screen instead of physical buttons and knobs (those are considered technology too)?.

The only thing Tesla has is some form of self driving, and that won't be enough.

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