If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…
And then I would just shrug my shoulders and buy more index funds. Investing in individual companies, no matter what you think you know, is always unwise compared to index investing.
Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
201–210 of 488 posts
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#202If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…
My perspective is that these issues will continue.
1. Tesla closed a severe number of their stores. All sales-staff thought they were going to be fired, but then Elon Musk reversed his decision. In effect: Tesla's sale staff has low morale due to boneheaded moves by Tesla leadership.
2. Tesla's future sales strategy is still a big question. Will Tesla push "online only"? If so, all of these salespeople should be looking for a new job, before the next round of layoffs. Tesla has done nothing to satisfy its sales staff. Rumor is that the commissions program was also severely cut during the whole process.
3. Tesla has had dramatic price cuts throughout Q1. We all knew they needed to do this as they lost the Tax Credit, but I think most people hoped that the price cuts would have worked. $2000 off of all vehicles in January, the "release" of the $35k Model 3 (except none have been delivered yet), etc. etc.
4. Tesla changed their sales policies to be far more forgiving to customers in Q1. Customers can return a vehicle as long as its under 1000 miles and before a week is up (allegedly anyway. I dunno how the process works). In any case, the price drops + very forgiving sales policies are trying to court more buyers. But... all of this resulted in 30% fewer sales in the Quarter (compared to last quarter). So Tesla was unable to counteract the drop in demand.
5. The $3750 US Tax Credit runs out in June, and is halved again to only $1375. Other cars, like Honda Clarity, still have the full $7500 tax credit, and are available at $33,000 (under the $35k Model 3, which isn't even being delivered yet). The competition is picking up, and the competition still has all of the tax credits available.
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#203But still, the number of Tesla's driving around here in the Netherlands is just impressive. I do believe in a bright future for the Tesla car brand.
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#204I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…
Tesla tried this with Toyota on the Rav4 EV, for which Tesla provided battery and drivetrain. Toyota decided Tesla was so hard to work with that it was worth ending all future partnerships. Tesla also provided the full battery and Drivetrain for the Mercedes-Benz B-class EV and Daimler ultimately cancelled the project to bring the technology in-house. I don't think the issue is that Tesla is unwilling to be an OEM, b…
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Production is up year over year, no? We don't know what timeframe the tweet author is talking about. Did he mean there weren't many Tesla's there last quarter or a long time ago?
> Production is up year over year, no? I mean, that's expected for a growth company. What's unexpected for a "growth" company is a sudden halt in growth. Why would production drop by roughly 10% and deliveries drop by 30% in one quarter? I think most people were expecting a drop of some kind due to the loss of the $7500 tax credit, but 30% drop is far larger of a drop than almost anyone ever expected. Note that Tesla…
It's not a bad sign, they have the best selling EV in the world and expect to be profitable from here on out.
If they they aren't profitable the next 3 quarters then I'd be worried.
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bea…
They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unri…
This seems like one of these sentences which you kind of miss on the first read and many years later when you wonder "what happened to that wonder battery?" "Remember the cathode we thought was almost done? Turns out it wasn't." Until they have produced that thing at scale it is still part of a long list of research products in the battery sector, which may never be available.
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean no luxury brand sells a car for $17.5k. I'm sure the entire world would go bananas if the Model 3 were priced at that... Chevy has the Bolt out now at the same price as the SR+ Model 3, and it's absurd how bad the Bolt looks in comparison. The range is the same, but the exterior, performance, and charging capabilities are dramatically inferior to Model 3. The only other competition debuting in the near future…
I think the correct comparison would be Average Selling Price (ASP), which for a Model 3 is nearly $60k USD. So I think when someone suggests a 50% price reduction, they are saying they'd love to buy a Tesla that is real-world, no tax credits necessary, breaking the $30k barrier. The most expensive Toyota Camry barely tops $30k[0], and the vast majority sells for less. So ultimately, mainstream electric cars will hav…
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#208If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unri…
> Goodenough and his team aren't quite finished with the new battery. They've only created the glass-based anode. But they're working out kinks with the cathode, and soon they'll be able to make some large-scale cells. This seems like one of these sentences which you kind of miss on the first read and many years later when you wonder "what happened to that wonder battery?" "Remember the cathode we thought was almost…
Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet
#210If I want to invest in Tesla or any other company (another ex: Boeing), I'd ask myself this q: Is this something temporary problem that smart people would easily able to overcome? Or is this something fundamental or structural issue that's gonna be there long-term. I don't see this delivery issue for Tesla dragging on beyond this quarter. Lately, I have seen specifically with Tesla that short-term concerns have been…
And then I would just shrug my shoulders and buy more index funds. Investing in individual companies, no matter what you think you know, is always unwise compared to index investing.
I decided I'd rather lose money due to my own decisions and loaded up on AAPL instead which ended up being recouping my losses and then some. I basically limit myself to major tech co's since that's where I see the consolidation of wealth ending up which has proven to be a smart bet so far. As long as I have good convictions about a company I'm happy to invest directly, maybe in retirement when I stop caring enough to follow companies closely I may consider a managed fund with a proven track record to diversify the risk.