Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#231

Post by tbabb » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:18 PM UTC

Klathmon wrote: post #116

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps an…

I think if they could do one thing to improve their chances, it would be to find a check on Elon. A Gwynne Shotwell for Tesla, basically. Someone who can divert his energy towards reality, and stop him from making impulsive, insane mistakes.

Example: Trying to ramp up the 3 way too fast, and over-automating their production. Those were undoubtedly very expensive missteps, and if I recall, there were a bunch of top-level departures just before the 3's ramp-up. Where those people (rightly) telling Elon that his target was unreachable, or his method inappropriate, and getting fired for it? It sure looks like it...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#232

Post by brianpgordon » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:21 PM UTC

dexen wrote: post #197

mikeash wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flip side to this is that they always seem to have some sort of short-term problem going on. One quarter it’s trouble ramping up production, then it’s quality issues, pissing off regulators, inadequate transportation, what have you. You can see this as “they are good at overcoming problems” or as “there’s always something going wrong.” I tend to see it more as the former but seeing it as the latter may be a sensi…

>[or you can see this as] “there’s always something going wrong.” Which is literally the truth in any business, in any industry: there is always a major problem, and a plethora of smaller ones to boot. Whether it's the competitors gaining up, the market undergoing a fundamental shift, the economy slowing down or the costs of materials and labor going up, there's always flux. Just as well there is always some waste th…

This seems like a view so charitable as to nearly strain credulity.

Firstly, many of Tesla's problems are self-inflicted. How much time and capital was wasted on the alien dreadnought? How much damage has been caused by the constant turnover in management, or the whipsaw changes in price structure and product offerings, or the likely ill-fated decision to double down on computer vision rather than use LIDAR? One mistake we can quantify is the disastrous $2.6 billion related-party acquisition of SolarCity.

And even problems which are not necessarily self-inflicted wounds, like their cashflow problems or quality issues which possibly any upstart time-constrained car manufacturer might face, are not any less problematic for that fact. As an investor it doesn't matter whether quality issues would happen to another electric car startup; they're happening to Tesla. Their competition actually does know how to build cars to spec, and they're coming out with their own electric models. And their stock comes free of childish bickering with the SEC or critically risky solvency status or desperate and deceptive PR stunts like solar roofs or underground tunnels.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#233

Post by steelframe » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:25 PM UTC

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sale for Tesla.

If they wanted to sell me another EV, they'd need to do several things differently. First, give me buttons for the common stuff I do. Stuff I do commonly is A/C, audio on/off, audio volume, suspension height, and driving mode (sport or comfort -- I share the car with a spouse who hates vroom vroom). Second, adopt CCS. I don't want to take a hard dependency on a proprietary charging infrastructure that entirely depends on a single company to keep it on life support. Third, stop lying to me about fully self-driving capabilities. While we're on the subject, sell me the car as it is now, rather than as you speculate you can make the car be in the future through a software update. Fourth, nail the fit-and-finish and the quality of the interior.

For me, Jaguar got almost everything right in what they were shipping in Q1.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#234

Post by ajross » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:27 PM UTC

> Tesla Inc. said new-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months

Wait a second, so this isn't a year-over-year number? Don't shipments of basically everything fluctuate seasonally? Is this even a meaningful metric?

Alas, the paywall prevents me from knowing. But in general "people buy 31% more high end cars around the holidays" doesn't seem like a clearly incorrect hypothesis.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#235

Post by ajross » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:30 PM UTC

bksenior wrote: post #112

yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

TSLA has a market cap of something like $40B. Seems like the window closed on a determination of "successful" a few years back. Your argument seems to be that it's going to have to compete once the market matures and won't take over the entire industry. And that's... a flaw?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#236

Post by pmart123 » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:31 PM UTC

bjl wrote: post #173

pmart123 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be skeptical about this. The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. Unfortunately, Solar-city and taking on convertible debt vs. equity have shrunk down their runway. Had they not done the related party transaction and issued equity, I think they could ramp production at a slower rate without the quality issues you hear about. I do…

> The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. According to their SEC filings Tesla spends tens of millions of dollars per quarter on marketing costs. Where does the idea that they spend zero on advertising come from?

Zero is an under statement, but relative to the $4B Ford spends for example, Tesla's $70M advertising costs are tiny. You could also say that about the number of cars Tesla has sold too, but auto companies typically have an incredibly large ad spend.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#237

Post by solean » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:32 PM UTC

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Audio controls are on the steering wheel (in the Model 3 at least)

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#238

Post by gnicholas » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:33 PM UTC

SEJeff wrote: post #177

yumraj wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around. Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a b…

Disclaimer: I do own a Tesla, and it does not drive like any other car I've drove or ridden in during my lifetime. My Dad says it is like being in a space ship. No, no, and no. Would I like Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jaguar to have electric vehicles? Yes I absolutely would! But would you have over the air updates, a push towards self driving (even if they're not there yet!), and a very strong push towards sustainable ma…

Not only do ICE car companies not issue OTA software updates, some use the same software for driver assist features for years in a row. I had heard good things about Subaru's EyeSight system and went to check out the 2019s Outback. I was floored to learn that the system is no smarter than it was in 2017, when this version came out.

Are they not learning from the millions of miles their customers have driven in the last two years? One would think that there would be at least some incremental optimizations (either for common cases or edge cases) to make the systems safer.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#239

Post by azhenley » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:35 PM UTC

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

I tried the Jaguar I-PACE (a friend just purchased one), but the reason it is a no-go for me is the lack of fast charging. I would be effectively stuck in a one-hour radius from my home.

My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. I really wish Jaguar and Porsche adopted the Tesla charging system (I think Tesla tried to get them to).

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#240

Post by twblalock » Thu, Apr 04, 2019, 6:36 PM UTC

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Jaguar, Audi, and BMW are all working on electric cars to compete directly with Tesla. These are large car companies who know how to build millions of cars per year. They have large dealer networks already in place to sell and service their cars.

Competition is going to get a lot tougher for Tesla over the next few years.