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Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

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Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#411

Post by kaveh_h »

Exofunctor wrote: post #372
AlexTelon wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote was: "In a later study, researchers at Stockholm University showed that the main difference in terms of criminal activity between immigrants and others in the population was due to differences in the socioeconomic conditions in which they grew up in Sweden." That means that the most important factor in terms of criminal activity is that immigrants are largely poor and poor commit more crimes. Not that rich…

The point is that most of these immigrants are poor, correspondingly prone to crime, and therefore not the sort of people you want to blast into your tiny population by the tens of thousands. Things are also confounded by the fact that most of these people are heavily theologically indoctrinated, making social integration and upward mobility effectively impossible, so they're going to stay poor.

"Things are also confounded by the fact.."

Which facts? What do you base this belief on? Any sources to any studies?

Swedens tiny population of 10 million can't handle immigration of tens of thousands? That's laughabale, it's been doing exactly that for decades now. Iraq, Iran, Bosnia, Kosovo, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Iraq again, Ukraine, Syria. Only recently has a resistance to these policies been seriously challenged...

Upwards mobility will happen, even during the worst conditions, like the slavery in US, did they manage to break free. This is not about when but how, true solidarity or true civil war and tragedy..

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#412

Post by turc1656 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #401
turc1656 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was simply that there is not agreement across the board that they commit more crimes. Yes, people are unscrupulous when it comes to statistics, that's definitely true. But "adjusting" for things is usually a way for people to get the result they want with the numbers. The government does this all the time with "seasonal adjustments" to housing and employment data. There never appears to be any rhyme or reaso…

> But "adjusting" for things is usually a way for people to get the result they want with the numbers. The government does this all the time with "seasonal adjustments" to housing and employment data. There never appears to be any rhyme or reason to the adjustments other than getting a better/desired number. While "adjusting" may be used for misleading purposes, government seasonal adjustments generally used a disclo…

I disagree. That link shows no formulas whatsoever, just a generalized explanation of what they do. Without a hard set of rules to follow, it's useless. Also, looking into the X-13 ARIMA software documentation, it looks similar to other statistical software packages like Eviews, which I have used in the past. This methodology they follow still highly subjective based on the parameters used in the model.

This is very much like what my employer does for publishing public documents for financial compliance. We are required to publish a public methodology/rulebook for our products so that investors can, in theory, replicate everything we are doing on our side. In practice, though, forget it. No one can replicate it. The document serves to explain the concepts behind the product and the general guidelines, but no one can fully know the granular details that make all the difference.

It sounds like the same thing is going on here. No one can realistically be expected to take the same gigantic set of data, individually set a dozen or more parameters and run it through software and get the same result. And that's not even counting data sets that the "clean" by discarding certain outliers before running the model.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#413

Post by kaveh_h »

Exofunctor wrote: post #390
SamBam wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Things are also confounded by the fact that most of these people are heavily theologically indoctrinated, making social integration and upward mobility effectively impossible This is when your biases are walking uninvited into a discussion about data.

Pointing out that religious fundamentalists don't integrate well is not a good example of "bias".

That you believe a majority are religious fundementalist is bias

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#414

Post by ra1n85 »

tomlock wrote: post #276
ra1n85 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes :) Semantics at this point. I'll rephrase your comment with consistent terms: If polling couldn't determine what the odds really were, the odds , which showed it was well within the realm of possibility that trump would win, aren't evidence the polls were out of alignment with reality. The possibility of Trump winning does not exonerate the accuracy of the odds presented by polls. The odds were not correct, and t…

>The possibility of Trump winning does not exonerate the accuracy of the odds presented by polls. The odds were not correct, and the polling data was flawed. If there are 10% odds of something happening and it happens after one event, that's absolutely not a reason to say the data points that generated the odds are flawed. That is the reason you presented.

It's not.

I'll clarify, to help.

The reason not to trust polling data presented today is that the probabilities presented in the past were not accurate.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#415

Post by cancancan »

Shalle135 wrote: post #101
polack wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's totally irrelevant that the crimes has decreased. The point is that a majority of all violence and sexual crimes is performed by immigrants (as confirmed by Sweden's most famous crime professor GW a couple of days ago). Why are you so afraid to see that immigrants are over represented in this category of crimes?

Good to know though is what GW is famous for. Being an infamous alcoholic.

That's just an ad hominem. Try addressing his arguments instead of his lifestyle.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#416

Post by collyw »

barking wrote: post #243
collyw wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In the case of Islamic terrorism, I've heard it commented that recruits come from the children of migrants rather than the migrants themselves. So do you think the problem is likely to be greater in 20 years time?

I don't know. As they say, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. What's your opinion?

I thought that phrase was relative to financial markets, not a general thing.

My feeling is that things will get worse. But by then we will have climate change starting to hit, and an unsustainable population. I guess I am pretty skeptical about the future overall.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#417

Post by turc1656 »

alkonaut wrote: post #409
turc1656 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was simply that there is not agreement across the board that they commit more crimes. Yes, people are unscrupulous when it comes to statistics, that's definitely true. But "adjusting" for things is usually a way for people to get the result they want with the numbers. The government does this all the time with "seasonal adjustments" to housing and employment data. There never appears to be any rhyme or reaso…

If you didn't adjust, and immigrants somehow still were convicted of fewer crimes then that would be truly astonishing since then the poor/unemployed immigrants would be committing vastly fewer crimes than the corresponding group among non-immigrants. Doing these kinds of adjustments is not dishonest if done correctly and in these circumstances it's often absolutely necessary to produce useful stats. How stats are to…

I agree that controlling for certain factors is a core principal in statistics so that you can tease out relationships once you quantify the impact of other factors.

Also, "if done correctly" is a huge assumption with everyone having an agenda in the current climate.

But what I was trying to get at is not that the argument should just be with that one uncontrolled data point. My issue is that society can't even agree on that basic, top level data point to arrive at the first-stage fact of whether immigrants do/don't commit more violent crime. Everyone would have to agree on that first, then they can dig into the "all else being equal" scenarios where you control for the other factors that influence crime.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#418

Post by kaveh_h »

concinds wrote: post #339
beefield wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> figure may seems small it would be nonetheless an unwarranted risk increase. That is again another discussion where it may be relevant. I took a quite specific discussion ("Sweden has turned dangerous because of crimes by immigrants") and in that discussion the fact(?) that total crime numbers have not increased is very relevant.

> I took a quite specific discussion ("Sweden has turned dangerous because of crimes by immigrants") and in that discussion the fact(?) that total crime numbers have not increased is very relevant. Not necessarily the case because demographics are never homogeneously distributed across territory. If the rape/crime numbers didn't fall uniformly across the whole population, then you could have scenarios where crime fel…

Lots of factors contribute to change in criminal activity, urbanization, rise of income inequality but also more people in segregated areas will probably not work out very well either.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#419

Post by alkonaut »

ptaipale wrote: post #410
alkonaut wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Librarians are socialists and liberals to nearly 100% no surprise there. They also have a lot of autonomy in deciding what books to buy. And the fact that people from the Middle East would have more room to maneuver in discussions about racism without being accused of racism is hardly surprising.

Surely not all librarians are socialists, but e.g. this one appears to be of the more fact-resistant kind, and comes up with repeatedly different and increasingly funny explanations for why the library shouldn't get a bestseller book. The latest one is "it's not fact-checked", as if the other books in the library (like the mentioned Mein Kampf) were.

Of course - I'm generalizing. My point is that the opinion of librarians aren't representative of the public discourse.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#420

Post by nunobrito »

koonsolo wrote: post #12
trendia wrote: post #11

The way this is worded is weird: Claim: "In Sweden there are a number of 'no-go zones' where criminality and gangs have taken over and where the emergency services do not dare to go." Facts: No. In a report published in February 2016, the Swedish Police Authority identified 53 residential areas around the country that have become increasingly marred by crime, social unrest and insecurity. These places have been incor…

Same as in Belgium then. They even throw stones at fire-fighters when they are doing their job. So nothing to worry about, right? And I don't know if it is the same in Sweden, but you are not really politically allowed to say what kind of people live in those neighborhoods. So again, nothing to worry about.

There is a lot to worry about.

Most are forced to correlate crime and migration because they can't write online that the real thing bothering Westerners is the virulent growth of an anachronistic religion that makes both men and women subservient to an old book or wizard in the sky. Somehow we'll find a few fellows here defending the increasing percentage of women completely dressed as ninjas as something natural in modern societies. Neglecting the violence that happens to them when they don't dress that way.

HN, it's time to be honest. That's the real elephant in the room.

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