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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

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Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#281

Post by ant6n »

threesixandnine wrote: post #250
ant6n wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bernie was leftist. Clinton, not so much. It's strange, as an outside observe I see hate spewed against giant swaths of the population (the 'establishment', the 'leftists', the muslims, the hispanics, the blacks or whatever) from Trump supporters. But those same people keep complaining about the hate they perceive from the left or whatever. It's bizarre. Are people supposed to embrace the racism, sexism and bigotry?

Nice try at straw man. A lot of things can be misinterpreted if you already have your mind in the specific drawer. You remember when Trump said that Putin is strong leader and afterwards that if he is the president US won't be weak anymore? Well, he actually meant that Obama is weak and not that Putin is strong. But most of the media and people interpreted that as a thumbs up for Putin. Actually it was thumbs down -…

My 'drawer' is that the US has a deeply dysfunctional system, and it's in even deeper denial about itself. The lack of education is also a major concern, as is the whole 'fuck you' mentality of all the disenfranchised folks; and the even bigger 'fuck you' mentality of the people in money and power.

The only thing that could possibly help it is a pluralist democracy, but I guess that would be too boring, and just wouldn't advance the joyful hate of the binary system.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#282

Post by 551199 »

flukus wrote: post #260
ant6n wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the face of it, this statement makes no sense. Would you mind to elaborate?

Anyone supporting trump is getting labeled a racist, misogynist, xenophobe. We've seen what happens to to people like Thiel and Eich, people try to get them black balled from the industry because they dare to disagree. Then someone openly flouting this "PC ideology" you've been getting increasingly frustrated by comes along they look quite appealing.

“The Advocate, a magazine that once raised me as a gay innovator, even published an article saying as of now I am, and I quote, ‘not a gay man’ because I don’t agree with their politics,” he announced. “The lie behind the buzzword of diversity could not be made more clear. If you don’t conform, then you don’t count as diverse. No matter what your personal background.” -Peter Thiel

[0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-LJqPQEJ4

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#283

Post by matwood »

M_Grey wrote: post #254
matwood wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets hate the unexpected. I'm viewing this huge down as a buy opportunity.

Yeah, have fun with that. I don't think putting money in the markets right now is a great move unless you can afford to lose it all. Granted, that's always the case to some extent.

All? C'mon, the markets are not going to zero. If they did, money would become worthless anyway.

Trump is likely going to be very business friendly, and after the initial shock wears off the markets will recover and move on.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#284

Post by andars »

humanrebar wrote: post #249
andars wrote: post #238

Here is a survey of some extremely unlikely but entertaining outcomes. 1) Neither candidate gets 270, McMullin gets at least 1, either from Utah or a faithless elector. The "never trump" republicans in the House elect McMullin over Trump. End result: Evan McMullin as president 2) Same as 1), but with Gary Johnson 3) Majority in electoral vote, but some faithless electors withhold their vote. I'd actually very much li…

Republicans would never choose a pro-choice president. Gary Johnson is not an option.

Last year, I would have agreed with you. However, I have wholesale lost all faith in my ability to understand how politics works. I would have said that this country would never elect Donald Trump, reality TV star (I understand other things as well), as president of the United States.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#285

Post by m_mueller »

ant6n wrote: post #248
m_mueller wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people have more problems with a candidate trying to shut down uncomfortable opinions through the back door than with a candidate who's openly sexist and xenophobic.

On the face of it, this statement makes no sense. Would you mind to elaborate?

It seems like Hillary has done all kinds of shady deals just to manipulate opinions. Trump on the other hand is just being Trump - he just says whatever the hell stupid thing is in his head at the moment. People perceive him as honest, even though what he says is highly contradictive - but at least his speeches and ad money is all he seems to be using, rather than doing blatant media manipulation.

The whole time I thought - if I were American, I would have had to vote Hillary because Trump seems dangerous, but after reading the following I'm actually not sure anymore. It makes me understand today's result somewhat. The Clinton campaign more and more seems like an entire season of House of Cards.

http://observer.com/2016/10/wikileaks-reveals-dnc-elevated-t...

http://thefreethoughtproject.com/facebook-caught-manipulatin...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-19/hillary-clinton-lin...

http://www.inquisitr.com/3495608/julian-assange-makes-claims...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#286

Post by inimino »

M_Grey wrote: post #143
MichaelBurge wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's immigration site is down due to volume. It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

At this point I'd almost welcome a truly rigged system, or even a secret service member who doesn't mind a lifetime in prison. Eight years of W. Bush was bad, and frankly I doubt the economy could withstand whatever Trump has in "mind".

You should be ashamed of yourself for posting this.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#287

Post by ant6n »

flukus wrote: post #260
ant6n wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the face of it, this statement makes no sense. Would you mind to elaborate?

Anyone supporting trump is getting labeled a racist, misogynist, xenophobe. We've seen what happens to to people like Thiel and Eich, people try to get them black balled from the industry because they dare to disagree. Then someone openly flouting this "PC ideology" you've been getting increasingly frustrated by comes along they look quite appealing.

> Then someone openly flouting this "PC ideology" you've been getting increasingly frustrated by comes along they look quite appealing.

But you know, it's not just a matter of flouting "pc ideology". It's not just words. Trump is actually openly racist and sexist not only in words, but also in actions.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#288

Post by trhway »

chiaro wrote: post #191
trhway wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LA times had it for trump. They had their own weighting. Their results when adjusted for commonly accepted weighting matched the common poll average. So it is in the weighting.

No they didn't: >Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trai...

Your link doesn't work for me. If you look at their Daybreak poll http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ you can see that they had Trump at 46.8 and Hillary at 43.6

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#289

Post by inimino »

chiaro wrote: post #131
mcphilip wrote: post #115

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.

A 30% probability event coming to pass isn't a black swan event. This term is unfortunately overused for anything unexpected but that isn't what it means.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#290

Post by matwood »

551199 wrote: post #188
wyldfire wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People over globalism" sounds like code for "protectionism". You can't give everyone back their large-wage-unskilled-labor jobs with tariffs. "Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto." -Thomas Jefferson

Look I know where you a coming from but the way the country is lead doesn't really help average joes. When manufacturing and other jobs are outsourced who are going to buy the goods when your citizens can't afford them? You have people out of jobs instead of them producing stuff and creating more business.

> When manufacturing and other jobs are outsourced who are going to buy the goods when your citizens can't afford them?

The problem with manufacturing is it is not really outsourced, but automated. Unions helped to push out the jobs that were left by making it hard to compete wage wise. It's why you see plants opening in the south where there are no unions.

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