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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

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Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#211

Post by wbl »

Alex3917 wrote: post #197
75j wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency. My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alter…

You realize that Republicans now control the presidency, the house, the senate, and the supreme court, right? This isn't our Brexit moment, it's our Islamic Republic moment.

Nope. I don't think John McCain or Mitt Romney would ever want a dictatorship. Heck, I think 90% of Americans would take up arms if a president didn't give up power peacefully and the military didn't peacefully stop listening and push him out the door.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#213

Post by 75j »

Alex3917 wrote: post #197
75j wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency. My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alter…

You realize that Republicans now control the presidency, the house, the senate, and the supreme court, right? This isn't our Brexit moment, it's our Islamic Republic moment.

And you realize that Clinton is actually a Republican too? I'm not calling it our Brexit moment, nor am I remotely excited about the next 4 years. I don't know what kind of moment it is, but let's not pretend that Clinton was a safe alternative. She is as dangerous as Trump, if not more so.

I personally would have liked to see Jill Stein hit 5%, but that looks unlikely.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#216

Post by akiselev »

Alex3917 wrote: post #197
75j wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? I'm not excited about a Trump presidency. My hopes are that 1) the media will keep a better eye on Trump (going off the last 8 years, they'll ignore any atrocity as long as it's committed by the blue team), 2) that Trump is not as smart as Clinton, and therefore less able to deceptively achieve his goals and 3) that 4 years of Trump will mobilize Americans to fix their electoral system and seek out real alter…

You realize that Republicans now control the presidency, the house, the senate, and the supreme court, right? This isn't our Brexit moment, it's our Islamic Republic moment.

Oh please, stop the rhetoric. There will still be an election in 2018 and even in 2020. More importantly there will still be redistricting after the 2020 census and using a Trump backlash the Democrats might actually be able to redistrict in their favor along demographic lines, shutting out the Republicans from majority control of national and state houses for ever.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#217

Post by stass »

symlinkk wrote: post #172
stass wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the answer can be easily found in e.g. Federalist papers and even Wikipedia.

If the answer is so obvious then just post it

It's not obvious by any means, that's why I pointed to the reference work on that topic. There are reasons the electoral college was implemented, whether they are still valid of not is a different question entirely.

Furthermore, it's not even clear what the question is. Why it's not elected by the US populous? Because it's the President of the United States being elected, not the President of the people of the United States. Why is it not a direct vote? In part, to make the system resilient to the tyranny of majority which was feared by Founding Fathers.

There is extensive literature on that topic by the designers of the system itself and one cannot summarize it in a HN comment. So if the the Americans the parent was referring to are indeed puzzled by that question there are answers to be found.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#218

Post by petre »

threesixandnine wrote: post #203

At this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground. It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear abo…

Well, you can't blame them. They really wanted Hillary to win, while conveniently trying to manipulate the public at the same time.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#220

Post by ohwello »

tomp wrote: post #119
ohwello wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not satisfied being in the top decile of historical human well-being, let's shake things up and take a shot at some reversion to the mean.

But the problem is, they remember that they used to live better just a few years ago, while simultaneously seeing others (political and financial elites) getting richer and richer. That gives even myself a fundamental feeling of unfairness, even though as a programmer I'm far from Trump's target demographic (although still working class).

Real wages had been rising, we'll see what happens next.
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