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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

181–190 of 318 posts

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#181

If any mod is reading this, I think it may be smart to close this thread down, since it will spiral into political drama very soon. (I assume their will be a post discussing the result...)

What's wrong with political drama? And I don't see any here yet, still pretty much the usual.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#184
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a feeling this was going to happen today when I saw that virtually everyone in my Facebook feed and everyone on the streets of NYC was supporting Hillary. Every extra +1 in NYC is pretty much going to be -1 in a swing state. As one of the hundreds of folks banned from DailyKos for being too liberal, I've been spending some time reading the Trump subreddit, and I have to say that Hillary has run perhaps the wors…

Yep. Trump is a monster, but this feels sort of good knowing how Clinton and her supporters acted. If only people could have seen the light about the Clintons a year ago, then maybe there would've been better choices today. And remember! The blame for a Trump presidency lies with none other than Hillary Clinton. She's the one that cheated a popular opponent in the primaries, that strategized to promote Trump during t…

Well, to be Machiavellian for a minute, Trump is the only candidate that Clinton has a prayer against. The other Republicans consistently outperform Trump in the polls. On the other hand, this has been a bad year for pollsters.

If she really believed in her causes and not her career, she could have decided not to run and backed a promising successor a long time ago.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#185
post #131

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.

A new wrinkle on the Bradley effect, maybe?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#186
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the answer can be easily found in e.g. Federalist papers and even Wikipedia.

Yes, we can find the answer as to why they were originally implemented. However, my interpretation of the original question was that of "why are they still in existence?".

Because you won't convince 3/4 of states to change it. And it's not worth a new constitutional convention over that issue.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Yeah, I thought about it a little, and I guess you are right. Only a dev would think about the possibility of a statistical model updated with a second(s) granularity. And be disappointed (I was) that it's actually just updated every few minutes with a fetched JSON file, rather than some fancy instant updates pushed down via a websocket connection. :D

I'd imagine scaling out a single static file and sending a CDN purge every half a minute is significantly easier than maintaining millions of live websocket connections

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#188
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! It doesn't matter what sex, color, sexual orientation or if we agree with everything - we are UNITED! This is a movement. Establishment vs anti-Establishment. People over globalism.

"People over globalism" sounds like code for "protectionism". You can't give everyone back their large-wage-unskilled-labor jobs with tariffs. "Commerce with all nations, alliance with none, should be our motto." -Thomas Jefferson

Look I know where you a coming from but the way the country is lead doesn't really help average joes.

When manufacturing and other jobs are outsourced who are going to buy the goods when your citizens can't afford them? You have people out of jobs instead of them producing stuff and creating more business.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#189

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

Not surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom. The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus. [0] Lots of things some migh…

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#190
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom. The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus. [0] Lots of things some migh…

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

I imagine at the very least he won't treat them with open contempt and hostility. That probably goes a long way for some of these voters.

I'm not a Trump supporter, but I do live in coastal California, and the absolute derision with which I see relatively privileged, affluent, college educated people treat or talk about the working/rural poor in "flyover" country makes me question whether, despite my current views, I too wouldn't vote Trump if I found myself on the receiving end of such hostility.

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