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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

51–60 of 318 posts

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#51
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is an abuse of our attention and a poor choice in information presentation. Who can we contact at NYT to complain?

http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/contact-the-public-edi...

I doubt the public editor has much of an impact, if any, on the interactive tools.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#52
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Yeah, I thought about it a little, and I guess you are right.

Only a dev would think about the possibility of a statistical model updated with a second(s) granularity.

And be disappointed (I was) that it's actually just updated every few minutes with a fetched JSON file, rather than some fancy instant updates pushed down via a websocket connection. :D

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#53

According to the nytimes it looks like the following right now: - President: Democrats (72%), - Senate (76%) and House (>95%): Republicans Is this a good outcome for a democracy? And if so, why? Wouldn't this mean that the system is effectively gridlocked?

"That government is best which governs least, because its people discipline themselves." (Thoreau)

Gridlock in the US government is a feature, not a bug, if for no other reason than it forces polarized, mutually opposed interests to compromise their principles and self-interest to get anything done.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Yeah, I thought about it a little, and I guess you are right. Only a dev would think about the possibility of a statistical model updated with a second(s) granularity. And be disappointed (I was) that it's actually just updated every few minutes with a fetched JSON file, rather than some fancy instant updates pushed down via a websocket connection. :D

Exactly :) I agree with what you said elsewhere in the thread as well, it's certainly a way to retain users on the page longer and have them stare at the gauges very attentively. I actually love this on so many levels.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Agreed, if it was oscillating wildly between extremes that would be one thing, but moving a few degrees is IMHO a helpful reinforcement of the margin of uncertainty.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#56
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

I wrote an "abuse of our attention". Here's why. Attention is a limited commodity. Movement attracts the eye. Using movement is fine if it conveys information. Movement that never stops should only be used if each movement conveys information.

In this case, a better solution would be a blurred needle.

It is well known that multi-tasking and context switching has a cost. The same applies to movements on visualizations.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.

Is there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?

Calling the election early was certainly blamed for the results back in 2000.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#59
post #5

Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?

A decent mechanism to minimize page refreshes at the very least.

Periodic real updates with something more expressive than a spinner, which have never been convincing enough to keep me from mashing reload.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.

Is there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?

I have never seen a state called for a candidate until after the polls have closed. Probably for that reason.
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