Live Presidential Forecast • Hacker News Board

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#241

Post by lake99 » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:26 AM UTC

threesixandnine wrote: post #203

At this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground. It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear abo…

> The meltdown of the "media" and shock is just pure funny.

Oh good. It's not just me, there are others who want Trump to win just for the lulz. I don't care for his presidency, but Clinton belongs behind bars right now. I hope Trump wins and then does something to land him behind bars too. That would be my preferred outcome. The media has to change too, but I don't think a Trump presidency would be capable of bringing that about.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#242

Post by Arkaad » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:27 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #173

wyldfire wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The assumption is people will change their vote based on early counts. I think the most likely problem is not votes being swayed by popularity -- probaly moreso is turnout being impacted by a large lead.

Agreed. Seeing that the person you'd vote for is so far behind that it's not worth voting at all.

Do you mean Gary Johnson and Jill Stein?

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#243

Post by m_mueller » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:29 AM UTC

ant6n wrote: post #234

threesixandnine wrote: post #203

At this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground. It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear abo…

Bernie was leftist. Clinton, not so much. It's strange, as an outside observe I see hate spewed against giant swaths of the population (the 'establishment', the 'leftists', the muslims, the hispanics, the blacks or whatever) from Trump supporters. But those same people keep complaining about the hate they perceive from the left or whatever. It's bizarre. Are people supposed to embrace the racism, sexism and bigotry?

I think people have more problems with a candidate trying to shut down uncomfortable opinions through the back door than with a candidate who's openly sexist and xenophobic.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#244

Post by ant6n » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:29 AM UTC

75j wrote: post #213

Alex3917 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize that Republicans now control the presidency, the house, the senate, and the supreme court, right? This isn't our Brexit moment, it's our Islamic Republic moment.

And you realize that Clinton is actually a Republican too? I'm not calling it our Brexit moment, nor am I remotely excited about the next 4 years. I don't know what kind of moment it is, but let's not pretend that Clinton was a safe alternative. She is as dangerous as Trump, if not more so. I personally would have liked to see Jill Stein hit 5%, but that looks unlikely.

Clinton may have been a centrist and not helped the Poor. Trump won't help the poor, so it's at best a toss-up.

The problem is that there are a lot of people who are not white, male, Christian, heterosexual, natural-born. And it's gonna get difficult for all those people. Clinton would've left them alone, Trump is fanning the flames of xenophobia.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#245

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:29 AM UTC

M_Grey wrote: post #143

MichaelBurge wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's immigration site is down due to volume. It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

At this point I'd almost welcome a truly rigged system, or even a secret service member who doesn't mind a lifetime in prison. Eight years of W. Bush was bad, and frankly I doubt the economy could withstand whatever Trump has in "mind".

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#246

Post by throwanem » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:30 AM UTC

coderdude wrote: post #226

RandomOpinion wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be surprised. The left is no more unified that the right, in many ways, and members of the mainstream left have been cautioning against this derisive labeling issue for quite some time now. See, for example, Rensin's " The smug style in American liberalism " linked to on HN at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12106004

Interesting. I'll check it out.

It's a good article. If modern progressivism were remotely at home to wisdom of the sort it offers, I wouldn't have cast a ballot for Trump today.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#247

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:31 AM UTC

M_Grey wrote: post #239

Inconel wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who very much dislikes the prospect of a Trump presidency, and is in fact well to the left of the Democratic party and Hillary Clinton on most social and economic issues, I find this line of thinking quite troubling. Perhaps rather than hoping for assassinations or voter fraud, those of us who identify as "progressive" could instead channel that mental energy into finding ways to better appeal to large gro…

You know what? People as a group are just too stupid and easily manipulated to be helped, and given that Trump now gets to pick (probably) 3 SCOTUS seats? We're cooked. Basically, for most of us here, the rest of our lives will have this election hanging over us, for the implications on the SCOTUS alone. As I said, people who can afford it are going to leave in droves.

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#248

Post by ant6n » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:33 AM UTC

m_mueller wrote: post #243

ant6n wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bernie was leftist. Clinton, not so much. It's strange, as an outside observe I see hate spewed against giant swaths of the population (the 'establishment', the 'leftists', the muslims, the hispanics, the blacks or whatever) from Trump supporters. But those same people keep complaining about the hate they perceive from the left or whatever. It's bizarre. Are people supposed to embrace the racism, sexism and bigotry?

I think people have more problems with a candidate trying to shut down uncomfortable opinions through the back door than with a candidate who's openly sexist and xenophobic.

On the face of it, this statement makes no sense. Would you mind to elaborate?

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#249

Post by humanrebar » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:34 AM UTC

andars wrote: post #238

Here is a survey of some extremely unlikely but entertaining outcomes. 1) Neither candidate gets 270, McMullin gets at least 1, either from Utah or a faithless elector. The "never trump" republicans in the House elect McMullin over Trump. End result: Evan McMullin as president 2) Same as 1), but with Gary Johnson 3) Majority in electoral vote, but some faithless electors withhold their vote. I'd actually very much li…

Republicans would never choose a pro-choice president. Gary Johnson is not an option.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#250

Post by threesixandnine » Wed, Nov 09, 2016, 5:34 AM UTC

ant6n wrote: post #234

threesixandnine wrote: post #203

At this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground. It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear abo…

Bernie was leftist. Clinton, not so much. It's strange, as an outside observe I see hate spewed against giant swaths of the population (the 'establishment', the 'leftists', the muslims, the hispanics, the blacks or whatever) from Trump supporters. But those same people keep complaining about the hate they perceive from the left or whatever. It's bizarre. Are people supposed to embrace the racism, sexism and bigotry?

Nice try at straw man.

A lot of things can be misinterpreted if you already have your mind in the specific drawer.

You remember when Trump said that Putin is strong leader and afterwards that if he is the president US won't be weak anymore? Well, he actually meant that Obama is weak and not that Putin is strong. But most of the media and people interpreted that as a thumbs up for Putin. Actually it was thumbs down - as in - it won't be so easy with me.