Viewing profile — aspenmartin

Right now we have a LOT of band aids. You want to optimize compute and thinking to a particular problem, sort of like we do. Yes you cannot perfectly predict this but you can do de…

Hey I totally agree I do not want a teleoperator looking into my house, it’s just so deliciously tempting to get in home on policy data. Not sure the reason why they are super inte…

Totally agree but the idea is this gives you a teleoperation environment that is truly on policy and not some artificial lab. The idea is that these robots, like those Amazon store…

I think the problem is whether you're for or against local models, the training strategies etc are roughly the same. > I think the last month has resulted in a lot of people saying…

Curious why you feel they won’t get the tech down? I think these products are all data plays right now.

I don't have a ball, where's my ball? Did you take my ball? I want my ball.

I agree with everything you're saying. And I would also agree if you can run your business adequately on OSS models you should absolutely do that for exactly the reasons you say. A…

> Marketing is just an arms race. It is ok to limit how manipulative and harmful it is and force companies to compete on something else. I agree with this, and I think you are righ…

> We have observed consistent scalings of language model log-likelihood loss with non-embedding parameter count N, dataset size D, and optimized training computation Cmin, as encap…

They are still a few years away from parity. It's not that they _cannot_ train frontier models its that it costs 6x as much roughly, and thats ignoring the headaches and extra hoop…

by your username I assume you are yourself one of the droids you're looking for lol. But also I think people forget: this is not cut and dried. This is not simple. This is not just…

This makes sense but I am not comfortable with the open source picture either. It depends on the use case and long term strategy. If you're handling customer support tickets or som…

> Nope. If China were not banned from US-controlled chips, it would be importing chips at much higher prices, therefore getting less bang for its buck while strengthening competito…

That is exactly the scenario that I believe and invest in. I peg trouble in Taiwan in the next 2 years at about 30%, which is waaaay higher than is priced into the market right now…

Oh no Chinas chip manufacturing efforts have a long and rocky history, they would be pursuing a sovereign stack no matter what. The tradeoff is worth it. They’re even publishing pa…

The Jensen argument that "oh we get them hooked on our technology and that will actually be better" is bullshit -- they would do the exact same thing they're doing now of building …

Exactly -- the hope for US strategy is that you can slow them down a lot but not forever. That slowing them down is in itself enough to keep a strategic advantage over them both in…

Yes but in an equilibrium steady state, compute and data advantages are all you need to first order. China does not yet have a compute advantage. RL is indeed the magic sauce for c…

Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficienc…

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

> To this you can add the specific testable training that pertains to code, but this degrades the weights for more general communication. Im not sure exactly what you’re saying her…

No, I just have a prior that’s informed by real information and evidence and that’s quite strong. - scaling laws exist - downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index) …

Yea it’s hard for me to think of what the end state equilibrium is. A pile of vibe coded junk today is bad. You need humans. But we’ve made such a ridiculous amount of progress in …

Good thing we have reams of data on this, holding performance constant the cost goes down 10-40x per year: https://epoch.ai (like the first box) Also, frontier token prices have re…