Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 • Hacker News Board

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#611

Post by aspenmartin » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:14 PM UTC

skeptic_ai wrote: post #606

aspenmartin wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.

I’m worried if west gets to ahead the best thing for C is to destroy the factories to slow down the ai. If west ai is too advanced can take over the world. So better go to war now on a same level playing field than later when you need to fight against a SGI

That is exactly the scenario that I believe and invest in. I peg trouble in Taiwan in the next 2 years at about 30%, which is waaaay higher than is priced into the market right now. If you think intel has gone up in price a lot now, it will absolutely skyrocket if TSMC fabs suddenly disappear. After adjusting to a domestic fab pipeline, we will have built up again an industry with a good talent pool (which we don't have now, Arizona TSMC fab needed to ship people in from Taiwan). At that point, why go back to a TSMC model? Hence we will have a booming domestic production pipeline, though still with complex international dependencies for various components.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#612

Post by throwup238 » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:19 PM UTC

zamalek wrote: post #574

aspenmartin wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

You misunderstood my comment. My hypothesis is that it did _neither:_ it accelerated along an axis, and American SOTA/frontier is now laggard (efficiency). Deepseek and Kimi are writing paper after paper with substantial architecture improvements for efficiency, because they can't just throw more hardware at the problem. And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it n…

> And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it not for the sanctions.

Gaining parity on the semiconductor fab front has been official government policy as part of their Five Year Plan for at least the last decade, straight from the Politburo. They were always going to go down this path, and with AI playing front and center on their upcoming plan, there’s even more pressure.

There was never a possibility of them not exploring it.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#613

Post by throwa356262 » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC

throwup238 wrote: post #612

zamalek wrote: post #574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You misunderstood my comment. My hypothesis is that it did _neither:_ it accelerated along an axis, and American SOTA/frontier is now laggard (efficiency). Deepseek and Kimi are writing paper after paper with substantial architecture improvements for efficiency, because they can't just throw more hardware at the problem. And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it n…

> And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it not for the sanctions. Gaining parity on the semiconductor fab front has been official government policy as part of their Five Year Plan for at least the last decade , straight from the Politburo. They were always going to go down this path, and with AI playing front and center on their upcoming plan, there’s even more p…

The difference is that this time the both the government and the (semi) private sector invested billions in this area.

They have always been able to do this, but this time they did have the option to pass.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#614

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

nolok wrote: post #543

addandsubtract wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've mentioned the Iran airstrike twice now. Do you have a source for them using an LLM for their "intelligence" / decision making?

You can find a source for it being used here [1] though parent is misrepresenting it either on purpose or by lacking understanding, I stand to my point above, the timeline is 1. the US used it, in venezuela then to prepare Iran 2. it became public through journals reporting it, but they didn't really hide from it afterwards and told explicitely what and who they used, naming anthropic 3. Diego (the CEO) answered by s…

[deleted]

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#615

Post by baggachipz » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:44 PM UTC

Looks like the White House is the happy owner of a new gold statue then?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#616

Post by cmrdporcupine » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC

jitl wrote: post #483

stavarotti wrote: post #55

I just finished reading Incorruptible and a central theme (Anthropic is a case study) is that trust is singularly the most important currency a business has. The past few weeks have done wonders for Anthropic’s marketing but just as much if not more damage to the trust factor. Businesses will continue to use Anthropic because it’s the default and accessible where it matters (AWS, Azure, GCP, Databricks, Snowflake, et…

it’s still significantly far ahead of openai. gpt 5.6 looks like “better 5.5”. fable does not feel like better opus 4.8.

We have no idea what GPT 5.6 is going to be.

And 5.5 still ranks higher than Opus 4.8.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#617

Post by zrn900 » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC

aspenmartin wrote: post #488

zamalek wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, don't forget that we're only here because the clown-in-chief cut them off from GPUs - forcing them to make do with inferior hardware (and hence superior ideas). I have no doubt that any controls would only make China stronger.

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

Slow? The chip ban was just a few years ago. The result? China is more or less self-sufficient in chips, about to catch up with the latest generation. They even banned China from using lithography machines. The result? China is now producing lithography machines that only few in the world could produce.

Let's face it - all bans were dumb. They just gave China the legal (per WTO rules) justification to start producing everything domestically. The bans work as a reverse tariff, as a protectionist measure that actually protects your competitor. If China did those, others could bring China to court at the WTO. But the US did that, so nobody can sue China.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#618

Post by matheusmoreira » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:54 PM UTC

wongarsu wrote: post #463

matheusmoreira wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what do you expect I expect the strong cybersecurity model to help me strengthen the cybersecurity of my project. > not allowed to cover security topics They said it wouldn't be usable for offensive purposes. This is the opposite of that.

Fable is very strong for finding bugs. But you are explicitly not supposed to use it for cybersecurity. Even in the initial rollout I had it refuse and fall back to Opus when implementing a change password function

> Fable is very strong for finding bugs.

That's what I was trying to use it for. Find bugs. Anthropic just refused to let it find the memory safety bugs in my C project.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#619

Post by cmrdporcupine » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:56 PM UTC

softwaredoug wrote: post #120

drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

The real problem is the White House just making up the rules as it goes. No laws. No predictably for the markets. A week or so pause from seemingly legitimate cyber security concerns isn’t cause for panic. But it should be backed by laws that describe what that process should be. That would put the market at ease

The rule is, you pay the toll at the bridge or you don't get to pass.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#620

Post by zrn900 » Wed, Jul 01, 2026, 5:57 PM UTC

aspenmartin wrote: post #491

bel8 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia GPUs aren't even the absolute SOTA for LLM inference anymore. Some labs are moving to ASICs and Huawei already have their own custom chips running DeepSeek as we speak. There's enough money and scale on the line that software affinity like CUDA is no longer the deciding factor and there's margin for custom stacks. Even more so after the USA GPU exports ban which is proving to have backfired by speeding up Chin…

Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.

Nope. If China were not banned from US-controlled chips, it would be importing chips at much higher prices, therefore getting less bang for its buck while strengthening competitors with its money in the process.

Instead, the US banned China from chips and lithography machines, giving China the legal excuse to start producing them domestically without violating WTO rules. Now China produces cheap chips and uses them with cheap electricity.

This was a dumb move by the US. Brought upon it by dumbf*ck aristocratic elites who grew up in isolated mansions and then received law degrees, with absolutely no understanding of technology and technology ecosystems. They thought they'd just make the rules and everybody would have to obey. It turns out in technology, they don't have to...