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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#491

Post by aspenmartin »

bel8 wrote: post #287
boc wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true for domestic labor and manufacturing, like shipbuilding, but the bleeding edge chips only come from one place and the US labs get the best while Chinese labs do not (unless they smuggle them). China gets creative, sure, but it can't overcome the fundamental issue that the US labs have more magic rocks that do math faster than their magic rocks. And the current state of the art is to just "do more math".

Nvidia GPUs aren't even the absolute SOTA for LLM inference anymore. Some labs are moving to ASICs and Huawei already have their own custom chips running DeepSeek as we speak. There's enough money and scale on the line that software affinity like CUDA is no longer the deciding factor and there's margin for custom stacks. Even more so after the USA GPU exports ban which is proving to have backfired by speeding up Chin…

Definitely hasn’t backfired. Exporting would have just sped up their progress. Instead they had to get clever and lean into the bottleneck which for them, now, is compute efficiency. This is temporary and they’ll figure out competitive chip design and production but not for several more years. It’s incredibly hard to match the quality of NVidia and TSMC, as China has found throughout years of trying.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#492

Post by jstanley »

drooby wrote: post #480
varjag wrote: post #348

So two and a half weeks, and on the workday. I wonder how much Jared had made. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48519513

Wouldn't "2-3 weeks on a workday" be a default hypothesis for this kind of thing?

If it's truly too dangerous to use you'd expect it not to be reversed at all.

Why would you expect a typical policy decision to be reversed within 3 weeks? If policies are going to be reversed within 3 weeks just don't do them in the first place.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#493

Post by xpct »

bluepeter wrote: post #202

Fable 5 apparently can't be used for coding? (This is from Anthropic's announcement.) > After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8. Edit: the above was from their tweet announcement at https://x.com/Ant…

So, you can't use it for coding, can't use it for 'sensitive' information in chemistry/biology. It follows that it's likely bad for medicine and adjacent topics too.

What can you use it for? To run a breadth search on Erdos problems?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#494

Post by aspenmartin »

nl wrote: post #333
solenoid0937 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "the race" I mean "the frontier, and the race to superintelligence." They are categorically behind. The best they can do with the capacity they have is to distill US models, but that doesn't enable them to reach the scale needed to leapfrog the US in the race to superintelligence.

It isn't distillation that gave GLM 5.2 it's jump in performance. To quote Pat Toulme: There’s a big misconception about how GLM 5.2 was trained. Yes, they distilled Claude and GPT 5.5 — but distillation is not how they matched Opus quality. Distillation only fixed the cold start problem in RL. RLing an agentic coding model isn’t rocket science. In simplified terms: 1. RL needs trajectories — rollouts where the model…

Yes but in an equilibrium steady state, compute and data advantages are all you need to first order. China does not yet have a compute advantage. RL is indeed the magic sauce for coding agents but the bottleneck for how much progress you can make, for both the US and China, is compute. The US at least for the next few years has a clear advantage here.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#496

Post by jitl »

stillcompiling wrote: post #432
fmdv wrote: post #31

Fable was (is) a major leap forward for my development tasks. The quality of the model compared to Opus 4.8 (when I last used it before the ban hammer) was night and day. Fable single-shotting complex and complete applications was a beautiful thing and I can't wait to get back to developing with it. All aboard the hype train!

Who the heck wants to aboard the Anthropic train after recent news? No one in their right mind!

people like me who want to use the best ai on the planet to get stuff done right

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#497

Post by MavisBacon »

lelanthran wrote: post #386
Sammi wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm the only dev. I simply don't have time for dealing with the code from non-SOTA models. I'm doing all I can to keep this business afloat.

> I'm the only dev. I simply don't have time for dealing with the code from non-SOTA models. I'm doing all I can to keep this business afloat. It sounds that your business is selling completely agent-coded products. I don't know how long that will be viable, or even if it is right now. In my part of the world, I am completely unable to sell completely agent-coded products, so even a SOTA model is useless. The majorit…

What part of the world is that where you can’t sell agent coded products?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#498

Post by jitl »

dakolli wrote: post #42
Sabinus wrote: post #19

The classic chaotic governance model and creation of an uncertain business environment by the Trump admin in the most important industry for the US economy.

If this is the most important industry for the US economy, the US is screwed. and .... Hopefully you're correct. In past Empires kings bet their entire nations future on the words of soothsayers , people who said they could predict the future. It seems like Machine Learning engineers are the magicians of Empire of the modern age.

it’s the industrial revolution for thinking, seems important

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#499

Post by 2muchcoffeeman »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #400
seviu wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. I have been using anthropic and codex subs, on max. All this changed in June. We are clearly entering an era where we cannot rely on American models. As a solo developer I value reliability over performance. I cannot pay hundred of $, plus a lot of my private time figuring out how to properly use this technology, for it to be taken away within hours. On top of that, the intelligence is being dialed down. Sonet…

I feel like I see this comment every few months and yet in between people keep talking about all of the functionality they’re getting out of anthropic’s offerings. It doesn’t seem to me that people are willing to give up the “shackles” as it were and we’re just going to wind up with what we’re fearing here. On top of that, local models are just not turnkey enough for the average person yet (go ahead and drop somebody…

The best models are clearly all from US companies.

But I think what you’ll see is people making sure the model they use can just be plugged into their workflow.

I used to use Gemini-cli until they did a Google and cancelled it in favour of anti-gravity.

That was my fault. Fool me the 10th time shame on me.

So I picked more open source offerings that I can use with any model. Once the other models are good enough, I just need to jump ship.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#500

Post by addandsubtract »

Matl wrote: post #466
nolok wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's the one who led the choice to refuse working with the gov for surveillance or defense, and it led to that block right after. I have no proof but I assume he believes at least some of what he's preaching (which doesn't mean he won't fold, at the end of the day it's an american company anyway). Brown is probably more of a diplomat, "Sure, but not now" goes a lot further than "No, never", though it has the issue of…

> He's the one who led the choice to refuse working with the gov for surveillance or defense This is false and just Anthropic being good at PR. He's happy to let it be used for airstrikes on Iran for example, just wants to keep a human in the loop. So the AI will say 'I am extremely sure this building (a girl school) is a military base' and the human will say 'I am being asked to carry out more airstrikes and who am…

You've mentioned the Iran airstrike twice now. Do you have a source for them using an LLM for their "intelligence" / decision making?
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