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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#581

Post by Schiendelman »

dgellow wrote: post #294
Schiendelman wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please stop being rude to me. I'm a human being, I'm a very experienced product manager and engineer (you can google my name, I'm the only one), and the way you are behaving sucks. Everything you're saying is true, sometimes. Assume I'm still right, and that you might be able to learn something from someone else.

Googling your name brings this missing person case as the only results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Logan_Schiend...

I guess if all you did was paste my last name into Google with no context, you'd get something like that. :)

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#582

Post by mmsimanga »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #318
Der_Einzige wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. The gap between Chinese models and American frontier models is estimated at 10 months by Anthropic themselves, and it's growing. China has no flywheel for long-form agentic traces like Claude Code and its telemetry over its userbase (no one uses the Chinese harnesses yet). Most Chinese models are forced to price themselves significantly below cost to compete with the huge demand for bootleg claude t…

Here in Australia the sudden withdrawal of Fable made all of us think hard about models and harnesses. I've heard half a dozen people talk about how a less advanced model coupled with a better harness outperforms a smarter model in the last few weeks. If the USA wanted to shoot its AI industry in the foot it achieved its goal.

Which products are you now using?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#583

Post by SubiculumCode »

calgoo wrote: post #558
squidbeak wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe may face technological and economic challenges, but one thing it isn't suffering is 'an identity' crisis - except in the daydreams of right wing propagandists. The EU's identity is represented in its charter and the various treaties behind it. > Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US There are sound reasons to avoid reliance on China, b…

Also, don't forget how much they are medeling with the EU politics. Here in Spain the ultra right wing are following the thrump playbook step by step. Now I can't prove this, but with our current government standing up to both the US and Israel, there is a feeling that a bunch of money and "think tank" guidance is happening.

It's Russia and the US and EU have long been under attack.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#584

Post by aspenmartin »

zamalek wrote: post #574
aspenmartin wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

You misunderstood my comment. My hypothesis is that it did _neither:_ it accelerated along an axis, and American SOTA/frontier is now laggard (efficiency). Deepseek and Kimi are writing paper after paper with substantial architecture improvements for efficiency, because they can't just throw more hardware at the problem. And China is now doing something on the hardware axis; which it may have never explored were it n…

Oh no Chinas chip manufacturing efforts have a long and rocky history, they would be pursuing a sovereign stack no matter what.

The tradeoff is worth it. They’re even publishing papers which blows me away — their efficiency gains quickly become incorporated into frontier models because they are open sourcing them. They would be aggressively pursuing the same chip pipeline strategy as they are today.

US is lagging in efficiency work because the ROI is better elsewhere for us. We have the same tier of talent, once the script flips so can the research.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#585

Post by energy123 »

spacedcowboy wrote: post #553
burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe seems to be going through an identity crisis lately, and i hope this sentiment doesn't continue. Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US.

I mean, this is not necessarily a problem for the EU. Some might say it's a goal. The USA is far more dangerous a "friend" than China is an acquaintance. China has not been threatening military annexation, China does not randomly start trade (or real) wars. China doesn't just turn away from international commitments. Bottom line: China is a far better international partner than the USA.

> China has not been threatening military annexation

They've been doing military annexation right now in the South China Sea.

> China does not randomly start trade (or real) wars.

The invasion of Vietnam? The subsidization of industry and pegging their FX?

> China doesn't just turn away from international commitments.

Abandoning Ukraine despite being a signatory to an agreement that assures their defense?

This is not an anti-China post. I don't like anti-XYZ country posts that create tension and make people defensive. I am not particularly against China more than other major powers. They have their interests and they pursue them selfishly, like other countries do. This is just a basic lesson about the world you live in.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#586

Post by pornel »

Aurornis wrote: post #269
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

> The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets. All the individuals and startups I know try different models all of the time, even down to the level of choosing which provider to use based on the task. Bigger companies move slower but only beca…

It's not switching costs, but trust.

There's no congress. There's no policy (they've been making noises about not allowing AI regulation and now they're not-regulating it like a child paying with an on/off switch). The law is whatever Dear Leader's mood is today. It overrides any contract you sign with private companies, and they roll over and take it, because that's how oligarchies work.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#587

Post by Aurornis »

sshine wrote: post #393
PeterStuer wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For real production I find the switching cost is not as trivial as you portray. Even going to a new model version in the same model family, say GPT-4o to GPT-5.2, a transition I just finished on a not too complicated application, requires extensive retesting and tweaking of prompts, guardrails and parameters.

I second this; even switching between minor versions of a model, you need to adjust prompts: the new model is better by implying a bunch of things that, when included in the prompt, will overdo that thing. Assessing quality of output is often not trivial, either. Typically, problems that are solved by offloading something to an LLM are super subjective, and customers “feel” something is different is vulnerable. We tr…

We’re talking about SOTA models like Fable, though.

If you’ve got a product where the budget allows for Fable level token costs, I doubt you wouldn’t have the budget to run your evals again on a cheaper model if Fable was unavailable. I mean it wouldn’t even take that much token volume to turn it into a money saving proposition to do the engineering work to switch to a cheaper model.

Fable is primarily used for human in the loop tasks like coding or office work, not in some backend app unless the company has money to burn and doesn’t care about anything other than using the best model available at the time.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#588

Post by WarmWash »

surgical_fire wrote: post #554
burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe seems to be going through an identity crisis lately, and i hope this sentiment doesn't continue. Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US.

> Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer China should be dealt with as a normal country. There's no need for undue anxiety there. EU as a trade block should exercise reciprocity and protect its own interests accordingly though. As for LLMs, I see no issue in using Chinese models. With the talk of digital sovereignty, you can run open source models on EU datacenters without necessarily having to…

China is an authoritarian ethnostate with mock capitalism experiments.

If you want to climb into Xi Jinpeng's garden where he has absolute uncontested unilateral control for life, well, be warned.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#589

Post by xg15 »

killingtime74 wrote: post #169
nickandbro wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jeff is now going to have to change his number. Can’t imagine all the calls or messages he must be getting now

You don't think public officials have official numbers?

Yes, but the numbers probably don't go viral on X, usually.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#590

Post by thewebguyd »

jamiequint wrote: post #564
squidbeak wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe may face technological and economic challenges, but one thing it isn't suffering is 'an identity' crisis - except in the daydreams of right wing propagandists. The EU's identity is represented in its charter and the various treaties behind it. > Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US There are sound reasons to avoid reliance on China, b…

"Fading superpower" is typical EU cope. It may help to be a little bit introspective about why one might want to oppose EU politics, or its leaders, whose "leadership" over the last decade has led to unprecedented migrant, economic, and energy crises, and stalling growth.

No, fading is right. The US is willingly and deliberately ceding much of its soft power. The US also caused a global energy crisis by being so completely incompetent in their dealings with Iran in the on again off again toxic s/relationship/war

Even if the US isn't fading, the message is still clear: the country is adopting a more isolationist stance and has no problems alienating its allies. Why would you want to continue to tie yourself to a nation like that?

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