If I buy the SpaceX stock it's 100% certain to go down. If I don't buy it it will rocket to the moon. Is there some sort of way I can positively monetise this?
Buy it both long and short, then it’ll just hold steady !
Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
551–560 of 1001 posts
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#552For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…
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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#553So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…
Now that Moores law is dead I think GPUs will depreciate a lot slower. I mean there's already a lot of hardware that has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years.
> I mean there's already a lot of hardware that has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years.
The vast majority of the price rise is mainly due to AI companies sucking all the air out of the room and everyone investing in "AI" regardless.
If China gets their process down to match US/Korea/Taiwan and they decide to flood the market to drown out competitors then hardware is going to be an order of magnitude (or two) cheaper than it is today.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#554Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you please summarize his argument?
The argument is, as I understand it: * Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings * Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize * OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that dema…
Oh yes, this time it will be different, of course. (Like the last time.)
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#555Earlier quoted context omitted.
This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds
There are many valid complaints about public markets undervaluing businesses in comparison to private markets, now that everyone is putting their money on the line we start to see a different view being taken which is exactly why public markets have always been a superior price discovery mechanism in comparison to private markets
The ability to short stocks in public markets also helps.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#556Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, it's wrong. Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500. So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.
I've recently learned a new finance term, "float", and I want to check if this makes a difference to this discussion? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_float I hear S&P 500 is weighted on float rather than on market cap, while Nasdaq 100 is based on market cap.
Yes, that's mostly correct. Many indices are weighted by something like free float.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#557Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…
Index funds are largely synonymous with passive, long term, buy-and-hold investors. That kind of investors are best served by slower changes to the index, especially since index funds are intended to piggy back on the price discovery that happens in public trading. An IPO price, which is the result of a private negotiation, is exactly what you don't want to buy stocks at if you're a passive, long term investor.
There's lots of different indices with different rules, and lots of different funds to implement these. Pick one that works with your preferences.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#558Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…
Because nothing about the IPO price has any resemblance to a fair market valuation, and if it's being propped up by this forced inclusion, even less so? The rules existed to fundamentally protect against a Potemkin village situation where an underwriter and some early round investors whip the valuation into a froth and raise against a rabid corps of retail investors who don't necessarily care about a PE ratio of 1,00…
You know that short selling is possible? And index funds are traditionally some of the keenest participants to lend their shares out to short sellers in return for a bit of extra return (over the raw index).
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#559Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.
I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?
If you are subject to capital gains taxes, this would likely be a bad idea? (Though I have no clue how American 401k work in this regard.)
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#560I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.
Because they lobbied for a rule change to get fast tracked to an index forcing passive investors to buy it at IPO price instead of being included after market value corrections.
This is completely wrong. Passive funds don't buy at IPO price. They buy after the inclusion rebalance which happens weeks later, at whatever price the market has already set. Plus the S&P500 rule change hasn't even happened yet, it's unclear if the rules in the current form will go through.