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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#401

Post by 21asdffdsa12 »

fourside wrote: post #394
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

Because this time we did learn our lesson is almost 15 years ago? Its a good time to get out of the ride

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#402

Post by toasty228 »

fourside wrote: post #394
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

[flagged]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#403

Post by hagbarth »

guywithahat wrote: post #389
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Because 5 days is not enough for the market to discover the price of SpaceX. And the rules were changed so the float is weighted as if it was much much larger than it is.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#404

Post by disillusioned »

guywithahat wrote: post #389
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Because nothing about the IPO price has any resemblance to a fair market valuation, and if it's being propped up by this forced inclusion, even less so? The rules existed to fundamentally protect against a Potemkin village situation where an underwriter and some early round investors whip the valuation into a froth and raise against a rabid corps of retail investors who don't necessarily care about a PE ratio of 1,000+ because they're buying the hype.

More importantly, it allowed organic price discovery to occur. This eschews that process because the indexes are _forced_ to participate essentially at _any_ price, so rather than the market writ large having the opportunity to reward or punish the underwriter pricing of the IPO and determine any true idea of price, they're forced to buy the banker's narrative, which will intrinsically prop up the stock to some degree, but at what cost, and based on what underlying?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#405

Post by chinathrow »

fragmede wrote: post #199
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

Wouldn't the other index stocks need to tank as funds must be shifted by large scale investors into the these new gigalistings?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#406

Post by Forgeties79 »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

There is a world of difference between 5 and 90 days, even if you aggressively stick to the “time in the market over timing the market” strategy. If it wasn’t of consequence, then they wouldn’t be attempting to change the rules. And if SpaceX is such a great long-term investment, then they shouldn’t need the advantages this provide. Join the index funds like any other company. Let the market sort itself out.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#407

Post by mandeepj »

rlt wrote: post #341
mandeepj wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this is disgusting corruption The guy called 401(k)s a Ponzi scheme. Now, he's coming after them to loot.

He called Social Security a Ponzi scheme, not 401(k)s.

Both are your retirement funds! So…you call one, you call the other one as well.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#408

Post by frankacter »

fourside wrote: post #394
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

>Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

They don't, while timing certainly benefits, and potentially was triggered by them and OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, these rules are not specific to only apply to SpaceX.

FTSE Russell (Russell 1000/2000 etc.) Adopted "fast entry" for large IPOs. Eligible companies (investable market cap above Russell Top 500 cutoff) can join after 5 trading days (previously quarterly rebalances). Also eased float rules with carve-outs.

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-rus...

Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100): Effective May 1, 2026, top ~40 market-cap companies can enter after 15 trading days (previously 3+ months). Adjusted low-float handling.

https://spotgamma.com/spacex-ipo-index-changes-spotgamma/

S&P Dow Jones (S&P 500): Reducing seasoning from 12 months to 6 months for megacaps and waiving the 4-quarter GAAP profitability requirement for large issuers.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-indexes-are-contort...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#409

Post by Forgeties79 »

thephyber wrote: post #386
jauntywundrkind wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also worth asking what SpaceXLAI's plan is to make money. $22.7T of their $28.5T Total Addressable Market is... Drumroll... Enterprise AI! That's the plan, that's what we are investing in: spacex and Tesla and Twitter are all side shows, to sell AI. That's what everyone's absurdly overpriced forced passive investment is going to. https://bsky.app/profile/segyges.bsky.social/post/3mnan7hr2j... There is nowhere near en…

Tesla’s market cap is entirely about Optimus vaporware hopium. Similarly Space-X’s IPO valuation is about “data centers in space” vaporware hopium and “timeshare all the GPU time that Grok isn’t using”. There’s a trend with Musk’s companies.

The problem is the stock market is more divorced from reality than we have ever seen. For instance, why does Tesla stock still sit where it is? How could it possibly not be going down at this point? So many undelivered promises, major setbacks in sales, massive decreases to their sales forecasts… literally nothing has gone well for them in years and yet the price is still outrageous. It really feels like I’m just out of the loop on something.

Jack Barker’s rather blunt monologue in SV about how the stock is the product is more true than ever. It felt very heavy handed at the time but it’s only proven to be more the case than I thought.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#410

Post by zuzululu »

qaq wrote: post #390
giancarlostoro wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They reported 559 million in Q2 of this year. OpenAI on the other hand, is nowhere near this.

because of the mutual sweetheart deal with SpaceX SpaceX gave em discount for the pre IPO quarter so they can show profit Anthropic signed a deal to lease compute that is the bulk of SpaceX revenue

and i think here lies the chess move by Elon

he's trying to steal OpenAI's limelight and shit on their road show

I'm actually quite surprised how much money Anthropic pulls

Also surprised that OpenAI is not pulling as much as I thought

All in all it looks like OpenAI is in a bit of a vulnerable position.

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