Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

471–480 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#471

Post by hliyan »

pryce wrote: post #355
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims.

1. Twitter is purchased with debt

2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter

3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI

4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation

5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requirement, inclusion period cut from 90 to 5 days

6. Index funds are largely held by passive investors such as pension funds.

7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?)

8. Holders of original X/Twitter debt (banks) incentivized to support the rule waiver since post IPO, SpaceX will have liquidity to service/pay the debt.

9. Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios will incur capital gains taxes. (?)

10. SpaceX is in Texas jurisdiction, where shareholder lawsuits are not possible and must instead go for arbitration. (?)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#472

Post by Ekaros »

deaux wrote: post #327
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need the opposition taking names for investigations in 2029. They're not all getting pardons.

The opposition you're talking of will hold no significant power in 2029. They currently hold a minuscule amount of power and this isn't going to skyrocket within 4 years. A meteor causing an extinction event is more likely and I don't think you're expecting that.

And significant part of those in opposition will jump the ship if they gain power. I think there is little hope for system to change unless there is total collapse and replacement.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#473

Post by romanovcode »

saidnooneever wrote: post #456
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

The gamble is that you either succeed or fail. If you try nothing you'll work until you die regardless.

Current system: Work until you die.

New system collapses: Work until you die.

New system lucks out: Probably get returns (pension).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#474

Post by Npovview »

hliyan wrote: post #471
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

We Uncovered a Hidden Wealth Transfer in the SpaceX IPO. You're Holding the Bag.

https://youtu.be/sYA-z0Y8WRQ

There is video explaining the process

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#475

Post by DC-3 »

skybrian wrote: post #225

From Matt Levine’s column today: > The index demand is not 100% of the stock available in the IPO, or 110%, or even 50%. But it’s plausibly more than 25%. It’s not a short squeeze, but it’s a lot. Add a reported 30% allocation to retail, and arguably a majority of the IPO is being sold to price-insensitive investors. That is one way to get a high IPO price.

Do the indexes have some capacity to defer / waive buying into new stocks if they judge it in the interests of investors?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#476

Post by curtisblaine »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

So, let's see. LLMs made my overall coding output significantly faster, even factoring in review time and tech debt. My employer should technically benefit from this, but it doesn't really, because all its competitors use the same AIs and all their engineers increased their throughput in a similar way. So I'm not sure that I, my colleagues or the whole segment I work in really benefited from AI in any measurable way.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#477

Post by curtisblaine »

threetonesun wrote: post #191
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

> - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer

I don't understand this. It increased productivity of every developer in the western world, so it didn't really give you an advantage. Your output is more valuable, but your colleagues' output is more valuable too, and your competitors' output too, and so on. So you're doing more things at the same salary and it's not like your company or your employer is making more money than usual or awarding you more eoy bonus. If your "life-change" is "I'm writing more code" without any other advantage (and with the possible disadvantage of your role changing, or being at risk), why is it desirable?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#478

Post by ben_w »

marcosdumay wrote: post #262
smallerize wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not only Grok, but also the robotics applications.

So... The US GDP in 2024 (the last one I found) was $27.8T... They are planning to capture 100.7% of it?

Or a bit of everyone else's.

To quote a message I wrote on a finance channel on telegram:

  The TAM for "enterprise applications" at 28 T sounds both too much and too little: by the time the tech (and/or overall economy) allows it to reach that number, that number itself will look unimpressive, and this kind of scale seems to be reachable with ground-based more easily than with space based (at current energy prices, even that TAM is only about 2% of being Kardeshev 1).

  Feels like Musk did vibe-economics for "how big is the global digital economy?", much like the claims about factories on the moon making data center satellites looks like he prompted grok with "if I tile the moon with solar powered factories and mass drivers to launch them, how many TW can it launch per year?"

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#479

Post by Aerolfos »

riffraff wrote: post #359
OccamsMirror wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please summarize his argument?

The argument is, as I understand it: * Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings * Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize * OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that dema…

> * Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings

That is a hell of a statement to make (their earnings are mostly negative, after all, except nvidia). Would require exceptional evidence, which doesn't seem to be there.

> * Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize

This does not reconcile with the large amount of empty datacenters and GPUs which have not been installed: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense-ad...

> * OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble

OK? It could also mean there is.

> I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that demand appears to be subsidized and may disappear quickly, but it's just MHO.

Even with subsidized demand Microsoft still ended up cancelling over a gigawatt(!) of planned datacenters already back in 2024. But yeah, their arguments are missing a lot.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#480

Post by xienze »

SwellJoe wrote: post #447
chii wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

which, if true, would make an arbitrage opportunity for a fund that explicitly excludes these high valuation targets but buys those trimmed companies (because for trimming to have happened, they must've been sold unwillingly and thus must be under-priced).

Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.

I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?
Post reply on HN