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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#321

Post by riffraff »

roflulz wrote: post #289
fragmede wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Why? Was space exploration incompatible with Sharia? Is it the pornography bit of xAI?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#322

Post by OccamsMirror »

nelox wrote: post #270
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

Listen to the author of “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles” argue why it probably isn’t a bubble: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/260347/s/233172.rss https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conversations-with-col... https://open.spotify.com/show/0Cj2lIpGxkrw1RFVIPTa6a?si=f41c...

Can you please summarize his argument?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#323

Post by deaux »

nelox wrote: post #270
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

Listen to the author of “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles” argue why it probably isn’t a bubble: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/260347/s/233172.rss https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conversations-with-col... https://open.spotify.com/show/0Cj2lIpGxkrw1RFVIPTa6a?si=f41c...

You mean "Listen to [someone who started on Wall Street at Lehman Brothers, joined PayPal in its earliest days and worked alongside Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, and eventually became a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley] argue why AI probably isn't a bubble".

Funny how this different framing of the exact same person provides a completely opposite expectation of their incentives behind commenting on whether AI valuations are a bubble.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#324

Post by rlt »

cortesoft wrote: post #315
gruez wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

The indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.

I think that's the point the parent comment was making.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#325

Post by deaux »

roflulz wrote: post #289
fragmede wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Looking at their exclusion criteria, which one do you believe it falls under?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#326

Post by robotresearcher »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #264
jauntywundrkind wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also worth asking what SpaceXLAI's plan is to make money. $22.7T of their $28.5T Total Addressable Market is... Drumroll... Enterprise AI! That's the plan, that's what we are investing in: spacex and Tesla and Twitter are all side shows, to sell AI. That's what everyone's absurdly overpriced forced passive investment is going to. https://bsky.app/profile/segyges.bsky.social/post/3mnan7hr2j... There is nowhere near en…

AI in space, for all that sweet sweet latency.

Space is not far away at all.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#327

Post by deaux »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #260
willsmith72 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is disgusting corruption, a direct wealth transfer from the many to the few. shame on everyone involved

We need the opposition taking names for investigations in 2029. They're not all getting pardons.

The opposition you're talking of will hold no significant power in 2029. They currently hold a minuscule amount of power and this isn't going to skyrocket within 4 years. A meteor causing an extinction event is more likely and I don't think you're expecting that.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#328

Post by HWR_14 »

alpha_squared wrote: post #229
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

Granted, I only skimmed some high-line numbers, but isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets.

They seems to have decent revenue leasing compute to Anthropic.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#329

Post by overfeed »

HerbManic wrote: post #121
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

[flagged]

The wrong lessons were were learnt in 2008 after no individual suffered any negative consequences for their part in causing horrible losses for a lot of people.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#330

Post by davidw »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48363245 "The SpaceX Squeeze"
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