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Ten predictions (2004)

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Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#61

Post by ryanbrunner »

hittaruki wrote: post #28
statictype wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Thank-god that was wrong! He wrote this in 2004. The Apple App Store was released in 2009 right?

I think he is talking about the actual devices rather than a "market for apps" for these devices.

That doesn't really make a lot of sense. Cell phones existed in 2004. So did "smartphones". Really, the only major difference that you could use the word "market" to describe is the notion of a platform for general-purpose mobile computing, the key part of which is a general market for apps, instead of just baked in features on a phone.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#62

Post by friendly_chap »

MrScruff wrote: post #57
friendly_chap wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> useful, but not that useful + 1 > Apple's profits With all respect, I have hard time seeing Apple laptops outside the US. Not counting some fanboys who acquired the taste trough some snob blogs.

With all respect, I have hard time seeing Apple laptops outside the US. Indeed. And where I am (also outside the US) I have a hard time seeing non-Apple laptops. Anecdotal evidence isn't really that useful when we're talking about global trends. Not counting some fanboys who acquired the taste trough some snob blogs. Making statements like this cause you come across as overly emotionally invested in your platform, an…

> Emotional investemented

No. I happen to use anything. I am not against Apple, I am against the Apple fanboyism. And any type of fanboyism.

> Anecdotal evidence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system...

"For example, most desktop and laptop computers use Microsoft Windows"

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#63

Post by kristiandupont »

friendly_chap wrote: post #44
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Thank god we dodged that bullet. I'm just glad people see XML for what it really is (useful, but not that useful). > Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore. The problem is multi-threaded has never really took off, even with all the cores we have today. There is still no silverbullet to harnessing parallelism. > Apple's lap…

> useful, but not that useful + 1 > Apple's profits With all respect, I have hard time seeing Apple laptops outside the US. Not counting some fanboys who acquired the taste trough some snob blogs.

"Not counting some fanboys who acquired the taste trough some snob blogs."

Language like this seeds religious discussions. Please avoid it.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#64

Post by stewbrew »

friendly_chap wrote: post #49
eloisant wrote: post #47

Considering that Lisp failed to get to the top 10 between 1958 and 2004, it was pretty dump to predict it would suddenly rise to the top.

Predicting that a language without a type system is the future is pretty dumb in itself. I give y'all an other one: "cars without brakes are the future".

I simply assume that with "type system" you mean "statically typed language" since lisp is strongly typed, which implies having a "type system": bigloo & typed racket demonstrated that static typing & lisp/scheme aren't incompatible. That prediction was rather unlikely to come true, anyway.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#65

Post by mseebach »

friendly_chap wrote: post #39
wwwtyro wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. "hosting open-source web applications" does not really describe GitHub 3. He's not talking about using multiple cores, he's talking about using multiple threads vs (for example) multiple processes. 6. Reddit, Hacker News

2. I think github is the most notable example. 3. Gotta reread that. 6. Oh come on, facebook, youporn, whatever. As I said, too vague.

Github is not an open source webapp. It's a closed source web app that hosts other people's open source apps (web and not).

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#67

Post by derefr »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.

I don't know about hard. I can now imagine a day where Clojure is the predominant JVM language--whereas if you told me five years ago a Lisp would be even as popular as Clojure is now, I would have scoffed.

Now, the by 2010 part is wrong, indeed. But I see these predictions as being more about acceleration than current velocity.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#68

Post by RyanMcGreal »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though.

JSON is basically XML with 50% less bullshit. It does less but it does it so much more elegantly than XML - and has the further benefit of a syntax similar to that of structured data in such languages as Javascript (duh), Python and Ruby - that it was a shoo-in to squeeze XML out of most non-enterprise uses, at least on the data transfer format side.

However, to this day most data still resides in SQL databases, which have the net advantages of speed, stability and reliability that come from long lead time. What has changed is that object-relational mapping has gotten vastly better than it was in 2004, so programmers can mostly enjoy the best of both worlds.

There's also the fact that SQL is an easy enough DSL to understand, read and write that it isn't a barrier to use even in edge cases where ORMs fall down.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#69

Post by mseebach »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

3: He explicitly mentions message passing and multi-process as opposed to multi-threaded, and that's dead on right. F#, Clojure, Scala, Erlang and Node are all approaches to concurrency that doesn't involve the developer dealing with threads.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#70

Post by andypants »

_anshulk wrote: post #18
hittaruki wrote: post #14

Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…

#2 probably refers more to heroku than github...

Heroku doesn't (necessarily) host open source projects. And Github hosts source code, not applications.

Although Github may be more on the mark here then heroku since it is hosting git.

But I agree with dools, I think this prediction was about services like wordpress.

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