Wow some of them are really spot on!
And some are not. Yet?
Ten predictions (2004)
11–20 of 324 posts
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#12[deleted]
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#13> Prediction #5: Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010.
these lisp predictions are like the year of linux desktop, aren't they?
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#14Status of these predictions in 2013...
1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea?
2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github?
3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node?
4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala?
5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. Don't think this happened...
6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. I suppose this happened big time.
7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Thank-god that was wrong!
8. Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services. I am still not paying but am sure a lot of people are.
9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. Hm...
10. In five years' time, most programmers will still be average.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#15Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
#1 - JSON and NoSQL databases?
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#16Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
> XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea?
I guess Redis and friends solve the problem "Nobody likes to do O/R mapping".
>5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. Don't think this happened...
But a few functional languages more or less made it into the mainstream: Clojure and F#
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#17Prediction #3 is the only one which I can't see being interpreted as being reasonably accurate. Anybody care to explain why it might be correct?
10 years ago I wrote desktop software with UI threads, background worker threads, network layer threads and various helper threads you spawned on a whim. And so did everybody else. Back then the big innovation to multi-threaded programming was the use of RAII Mutexes[1] to avoid livelock/deadlock scenarios.
Fast forward to today. We write complex software for the browser with Javascript front-ends that are completely asynchronous. On the server we have a share-nothing-architecture where hundreds of incoming requests are divided over independent workers. There is still complex multi-threading going on in the database and in the web browser, but most programmers don't have to deal with it anymore. The problem of locks and deadlocks is pretty much a responsibility of the operating system now, much like virtual memory and writing data to the filesystem.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_Acquisition_Is_Initial...
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#18Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
#2 probably refers more to heroku than github...
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#19Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
5. Pretty close: http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.... lisp #13, scheme #26
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#20Anyone willing to write 10 predictions for 2020?