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This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.
When reading the article, I had the feeling that prediction #6 was actually FaceBook.
This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.
When reading the article, I had the feeling that prediction #6 was actually FaceBook.
Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
He wrote this in 2004. The Apple App Store was released in 2009 right?
Well, I am going to go and do my predictions for the next ten. Laser guns right up the top !
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed-energy_weapon
* http://www.csbaonline.org/publications/2012/04/changing-the-...
Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
5. Pretty close: http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.... lisp #13, scheme #26
This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.
When reading the article, I had the feeling that prediction #6 was actually FaceBook.
Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Thank-god that was wrong! He wrote this in 2004. The Apple App Store was released in 2009 right?
2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable.
3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore.
4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. Not in 2010, not even yet, but we are certainly on the road. No surprise considering how shit Java is.
5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.
6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning.
7. The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Happened sooner.
8. Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services. You don't say? They are one of the biggest players out there, even if they are not primarily known for payware but still.
9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. No way, thanks God.
10. In five years' time, most programmers will still be average. This makes no sense, but anyway, we are getting better. Slowly though, version control, more languages, testing is infiltrating even some dumber dev companies too.
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I give this guy a mental thumbs up for points 1 and 4, and the cynicism in point 10.
Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…
1. Well we have the NoSQL bandwagon. Obviously with JSON in a lot of places instead of XML.
2. Well we have GitHub and Bitbucket, but also cloud application platforms and EC2, and Heroku for taking application deployment and infrastructure away from being the pain point it was.
3. Green threads.
4. I would say Java is still the No.1 on the JVM by a long shot and more than 50% but I don't have the figures to back it up.
5. Lisp. I agree, hasn't happened
6. Hackernews, Reddit, Facebook
7. I think he was closed to the mark there. 2009, well there was a complete reinvention when the iPhone was released in 2007 and Android in 2008. Took the networks some time after to get their 3G together.
8. A lot of people are starting to for Google Apps for Enterprise, Google Adwords is still popular as ever, but personally. No.
9. Apple is apparently more profitable, but I don't think there are good figures anywhere for this.
10. Most people are probably around average at.. ;-)