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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

tradersunion.com

211–220 of 496 posts

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#211
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you afraid of happening? This is such a perverse and anxious fear imo

A reasonable scenario might be a cyberattack taking down large portions of the grid for a prolonged time. It's not impossible to achieve something like that, Stuxnet proved the concept of corrupting PLCs driving powerplants ages ago. Alternatively, even outside a cyberwar scenario, bad weather has been shown to take down power grids for entire regions for days, sometimes weeks.

> bad weather has been shown to take down power grids for entire regions for days, sometimes weeks

Where I live, we have typhoons which depending on the direction they arrive in can result in all the gas stations being out of gas for 2+ days. Meanwhile the grid keeps on ticking.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

If your refinery is taken out, it might take years to rebuild it.

Not years.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#213
post #65

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

I think this has the causality reversed. The dollar is the world's reserve currency because the US wields incredible negotiating power and has been the de facto military hegemony in the past few decades. It seems likely that the dominance the US has enjoyed in the recent past will diminish somewhat as other blocks with larger population bases catch up on the technology and industrialization fronts, and eventually sta…

The US is the reserve currency because of Bretton Woods. [1] Under the Bretton Woods agreements participating countries were to peg their currency to the dollar and the dollar, in turn, would be directly convertible to gold. The idea was to make it impossible for countries to artificially manipulate the value of their currency, and thus ease international trade standards.

The US' barrier to exploitation was on the gold clause. If we printed too many dollars, then other countries could do a gold call with the increasingly worthless dollars, get valuable gold in exchange, take the currency out of play, and the issue would be fixed. So punishment and self interest in a quite well designed system, kind of. The problem is we just printed a bunch of money anyhow and then when France decided to make a gold call with their reserves, we shrugged, defaulted, and just broke the agreement.

So this started the modern economic era in 1971 where currencies became completely detached and free floating. At that point about 85% of global reserves were USD. Countries began rapidly dumping the dollar and USD inflation began skyrocketing. In 1980 inflation in the US was at 13.5%! This era continued til around around 1990 with the USD falling to 47% of reserves, but then in 1991 the USSR collapsed leaving the US not only as the sole 'king' of the world, but also to former Soviet nations dollarizing once the dust had settled. This continued up til 2001 (USD at 72%) when there was both the dotcom bubble and the clear rise of China and Russia as global powers. We've now been on a steady decline since, with the USD currently down to about 56% of reserves.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#214

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I'll be surprised if renewables overtakes oil for energy production anytime soon. I could see nuclear doing that, but I never can get past the challenges of maintenance and replacement costs for solar panels, turbines, and especially for storage.

I will be very happy to be proven wrong here over time though. New battery technology could make a big improvement. And I keep hearing that AI will give us answers to all our technical challenges and lead to an age of abundance where we all make a high income, so there's that too.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power. this is just nonsense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou... while traveling i got caught up in this. no restaurants, no credit cards working, no grocery stores, no…

If you used cash as a reasonable person you would not even notice that cards aren't working.

How many shops will be open without power? No till, no light, no refrigerator... not sure how much will help you having cash, beyond a couple of very basic needs - I can't even tell which, nor can you, it's gonna be an adventure either way.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relative to the US it’s not a straightforward answer but China is definitely not rising in the way it was a decade ago and has been outpaced by the us

China has a massive demographic problem in the near future (after 2040ish), and it is extremely unlikely (IMO) that it is going to catch up/surpass the US in GDP per capita within the next decades. But its relative GDP growth has been higher than the US for decades, is higher stil and is probably going to stay higher for years: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?country=U...

But the gap between the us and China in terms of GDP has widened in recent years making it look like China will never surpass the us

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Gasoline is much easier to store (you can keep a reserve in your cellar) and much easier to carry and trade than electricity.

African continent is probably the last place in the world where this is relevant, and they are on track to fix it.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is infinitely worse, at least China is predictable.

You don't know the meaning of the words. Ask the Philippines how unpredictable China is in the South China sea.

You don't know who is the President of the USA.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#220
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

I hope its strictly an American fantasy to think you're driving out of anywhere when something like that happens. Buy a bicycle.

I know I have a problem with "suspension of disbelief" but I find it always weird in those dystopian movies where they all drive monster trucks on an apparently endless supply of scavenged fuel and spare parts. But I'm positive exactly this Hollywood spirit is what fuels (pun intended) most of those hyper-optimistic answers.
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