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The end of the Petro Dollar? Soviet-China-Iran - Petro Yuan? /edit for the pedantic. Russian Federation.
Russia and Iran are irrelevant in the global economy.
They're modest by raw economic size, but outsized in relevance due to energy resources and geopolitical leverage.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…
Its not an old idea at all. Its from a 2012 article by Graham Alison followed by a 2017 book on the rise of China specifically that Xi Jinping read and referenced. Its claimed to be an old idea, but its actually only recently become popular
The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…
If there's one thing you can do now that will set you up for the next 20–30 years: it’s learning Mandarin.
The trouble is that a billion people speak Mandarin already and many of them speak very good English as well, so your own skillset as a second language learner isn't very likely to be valuable. Unfortunately learning any language is rarely a valuable market skill on its own.
Not a good thing. China is an authoritarian regime, which we need to reduce dependency on, not increase it.
The US is not that different.
The question is whether this makes folks more or less likely to hold dollars vs yuan as reserve currency
The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027
Did you read the article? It seems that may be changing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Historically a more multipolar world has been a more violent and chaotic world, but maybe this time will be better.
Well I wouldn't say it's peaceful now, or has been in the past... Actually there's few years that the US wasn't at war.
99% of us got to grow up without the fear of military violence, and go about our lives.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Historically a more multipolar world has been a more violent and chaotic world, but maybe this time will be better.
Well I wouldn't say it's peaceful now, or has been in the past... Actually there's few years that the US wasn't at war.
Change happens gradually, and then suddenly.