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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#201

Post by WarmWash »

curuinor wrote: post #15
ForHackernews wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rising power challenges the fading imperial hegemony. In this case, CNY displacing USD.

CNY displacing USD would entail allowing people outside China to buy really significant quantities of CNY-denominated financial products. This would entail CNY/USD changing so CNY is more expensive, because the default currency for financial products currently existing is USD. Which would slap a corresponding huge price increase with 0 increase in quality to all Chinese export. Which would murder Chinese manufacturin…

China is step by step learning that communism actually sucks and doesn't work.

Unless you can have a super intelligence that can monitor every aspect of everything all the time to ensure optimal decisions. Hmmmm...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#202

Post by codedokode »

mirmor23 wrote: post #178
mschuster91 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

> Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power. this is just nonsense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou... while traveling i got caught up in this. no restaurants, no credit cards working, no grocery stores, no…

If you used cash as a reasonable person you would not even notice that cards aren't working.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#203

Post by WarmWash »

Markoff wrote: post #98
baxtr wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is China still rising or already in decline?

their yough unemployment rate sure is rising, it sure ain't great to be young Chinese looking for job now https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem... https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01203/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1pedov5/oc... also there are salary paycuts for people who already have work, my Chinese clients tried this, but not gonna accept it, I will rather lose such…

Yeah, but have you seen their EVs that cost $30,000 and have fold out kitchens and a movie theater in the rear?

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#204

Post by thelastgallon »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #170
thelastgallon wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at ~$86.60/barrel to balance their budget, per Bloomberg. It is not the marginal cost to pump a barrel, but what a country needs to support their sticky spending from previously assured energy exports. Governments will collapse long before we approach low single digit oil prices on the global market. The World Is Awash With Oil and Prices Are Poised to Keep Falling - https://www.bloomber…

Indeed. Electricity will be the only abstraction layer of energy, all end uses (transportation, cooking, heating, cooling, appliances) will switch to electricity.

Electricity can be generated from any source (dirty + clean), but the abstraction layer of electricity will allow the grid to continuously increase the clean fuels. It helps that the cleanest is also the cheapest. Solar panels are cheap as dirt. In 1975, a solar PV module cost $128.27 per watt. In 2026 it costs $0.1 - $0.2 per watt, a thousand times cheaper. In 1975, only satellites could afford solar. Today, its the cheapest source of energy.

China will be an electrostate. Are there any other electrostates? Maybe Bhutan, Costa Rica, but they are too small.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#205

Post by codedokode »

thelastgallon wrote: post #128
codedokode wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

[flagged]

Gasoline is much easier to store (you can keep a reserve in your cellar) and much easier to carry and trade than electricity.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#206

Post by samrus »

thelastgallon wrote: post #93
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia)

I dont agree with china having the same position as the FF exporters. Simply because with renewables, you export the means to produce energy rather than the energy itself. So in terms of monetary value, china will be selling alot less panels than the FF countries sell oil. And other countries can also manufactor renewables tech themselves, while with oil they couldnt materialize it under their feet

Basically i think the paradigm of the energy trade being cornered for politcal controll wont exost with renewables. Renewables are decentralized and so not controllable

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#207

Post by soco »

thelastgallon wrote: post #93
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

But, how much of the extracted oil becomes ICE fuel? Because other transports cannot be converted that quick (air, sea...) and most if not all petrochemical industries will still need to exist even if all cars drive electric. So how big will be the effect of crashing fuel demand?

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#208

Post by ben_w »

thelastgallon wrote: post #172
mschuster91 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

If your refinery is taken out, it might take years to rebuild it.

If it was that easy, Ukraine would have already brought Russia to its knees.

Because the Russian government is still telling themselves they can win and don't even bother trying to negotiate with Ukraine but instead the USA, this must not be the case.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#209

Post by WarmWash »

kachnuv_ocasek wrote: post #6
JimmyBuckets wrote: post #2

It will be interesting to see how much of Thucydides Trap plays out in currency and trade as opposed to military conflict. I am hopeful that economic and financial warfare absorbs the brunt of the power struggle.

I, for one, would appreciate if we could just move on past these incessantly destructive power struggles as humanity.

It's a fundamental attribute of reality. Take it up with mother nature, because power struggles exist everywhere, even in dumb systems with no intelligence. Weak things go away, strong things stay around. Weak things need to become stronger than strong things to displace them.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#210

Post by codedokode »

gspr wrote: post #199
codedokode wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can buy it on a black market unlike electricity.

Are you suggesting we plan our global energy infrastructure based on attributes like "how well it fares in a post-apocalyptic barter economy"?

Are you thinking that there are no wars and power plants do not get destroyed? If you live in a non-nuclear country the chances are non-zero and it is not smart to depend on large, centralized, easy to destroy power plants. It actually dumb to build those large plants instead of decentralized smaller plants.

For example, a president of a certain country threatened to make a "power plant day" in another certain country.

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