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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#171

Post by vel0city »

mschuster91 wrote: post #150
thelastgallon wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

As someone who has actually lived through multiple major catastrophes where fuel couldn't get delivered for days and electricity was out for days, when the pumps stop working there is no gas. Don't assume the gasoline the police and fire department have will be there for you. It's there for the first responders. They don't have infinite supply. Their supply is extra expensive to handle compared to when things were working. You've now got many thousands of families all trying to get to the two or three operating fuel stations...trust me they're not open to the public! When you're out of gas, you're out of gas.

Meanwhile, those with solar panels not reliant on grid-tie, they can continue to charge their vehicles.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#172

Post by thelastgallon »

mschuster91 wrote: post #150
thelastgallon wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

If your refinery is taken out, it might take years to rebuild it.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#173

Post by codedokode »

cevn wrote: post #142
codedokode wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

Are u serious? If ur oil refinery is destroyed how are you going to pump oil to your house?

You can buy it on a black market unlike electricity.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#174

Post by tgv »

westpfelia wrote: post #106
lenerdenator wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not bombing anyone Not that they wouldn't bomb Taiwan if they thought they could get away with it. The reason they can't, of course, is that doing so carries the risk of starting a thermonuclear war with the United States. > causing chaos to it's [sic] allies... Well, there's two ways to think about this. 1) China doesn't really have allies. They've a long history of pissing off their neighborhood extending back ce…

> Not that they wouldn't bomb Taiwan if they thought they could get away with it. There is zero evidence of this. The last time China even engaged in a direct military conflict was the 1970s. Where as even before Trump America could have invaded almost any country on the planet. and it wouldnt have been to shocking.

> There is zero evidence of this.

Ah, all those exercises are just for fun.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#175

Post by Markoff »

crabette wrote: post #114
tdeck wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trouble is that a billion people speak Mandarin already and many of them speak very good English as well, so your own skillset as a second language learner isn't very likely to be valuable. Unfortunately learning any language is rarely a valuable market skill on its own.

Right now Mandarin speakers in Europe are in high demand for contract support, it's different when you have a translator on a site with culture matching yours then having it in contractor's country.

tell that to my wife - native Chinese speaker - unable to find job in Europe, what you say may work for someone speaking perfectly local language (other than English), but not for just English/Chinese combo without 3rd language

just language itself isn't enough

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#176

Post by andsoitis »

JimmyBuckets wrote: post #125
andsoitis wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Essentially its a very old (~2.5k year) idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. It sounds plausible, but if it is this old there must be a long list of examples. What are some of them?

As LarsDu88 mentioned above, its actually not this old. The idea is recent but is based on an ancient conflict. That is my mistake. The wiki article has interesting info on the examples that the originator saw: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

Thanks for the list of examples.

It is odd to see a single country being repeated at different times as the "incumbent" power.

The latest example in the list shows "UK and France" as incumbent power and Germany as rising for the 1990s - present.

The US is only listed for the 1940s - 1980s as incumbent, with Japan and Soviet Union as rising.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#177

Post by somenameforme »

decimalenough wrote: post #47
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027

Prior to Bretton Woods countries were well aware that no single country could be entrusted with the power granted in being the global reserve currency. It's too much power that's too tempting to abuse. But they also learned from the collapse of Bretton Woods that even orchestrated agreements with built-in penalties just don't work, because countries can simply ignore them when beneficial.

So I think we're headed to a future where no currency will dominate. This is probably also why the dollar's decline doesn't have any clear successor filling the vacuum. If anything, countries are accumulating far larger stores of gold. I expect this is also why BRICS is having difficulty creating their own trading currency. No countries can, or should, trust other ones which complicates matters greatly.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#178

Post by mirmor23 »

mschuster91 wrote: post #150
thelastgallon wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

> Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

this is just nonsense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou...

while traveling i got caught up in this. no restaurants, no credit cards working, no grocery stores, no cell connection, no navigation with phone, no gas station. the goddam list goes on. fortunately this was less than 16 hours.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#179

Post by maxglute »

pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

USD exorbitant privilege is mostly just exorbitant now that sanction evasion solved problem due to US going ham. Central banks pulling out of treasuries, rates increase selling to institutional vs marginal buyers, USD just terminal debt serving sink hole now. Ironically PRC can now lend out USD from their reserves and trade surplus at better rates than FED... the answer to USD in meantime for PRC is PRC USD, every dollar PRC recycles their USD is a dollar not buying treasuries that makes USD reserve more onerous to maintain.

LBH PRC not dumb enough to dig itself into Triffin deindustrialization hole US has. IMO Yuan positioning itself to be better than a reserve currency, it'll be premium currency for PRC tech stack (everything do be primogem) once PRC overtake west in critical strategic goods - ultimately, whoever controls discounted society sustaining tech / commodities stack long term controls payment preference. In meantime, PRC more than fine USD continue it's decline into debt serviced casino where somehow now house net loses until US inevitably have to debase/inflate away leaving others holding bag. There's really no alternative scenario (i.e. default) for USD at this point. Downstream of that is FX re reevaluations etc, i.e. PRC nominal > US nominal is not going to take years, is not dependant on PRC vs US growth, in the end it will take a few months of FX swing outside of either party's controls.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#180

Post by seydor »

pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

it wields power with missiles, with the dollar as a consequence
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