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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#411

Post by folkrav »

globular-toast wrote: post #401
folkrav wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Missed the part where they had stopped entirely because of chronic pain? Are you somehow aware of the levels of pain they deal with daily to be able to say they could “totally” do it without?

They didn't say anything about chronic pain, but with that extra context I do understand now.

Re-reading they indeed didn’t say “chronic pain”, that was me extrapolating. However I think it’s still relatively safe to assume “hand problems” prevalent enough to prevent them from typing code for many years to be both painful and chronic.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#412

Post by daishi55 »

vannevar wrote: post #300
daishi55 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracte…

> In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce.

Did this actually happen though? Is there any evidence or you are just imagining a scenario which if it did happen could lead to the scenario you outlined?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#413

Post by snazz »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #211

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

I bought a desktop with “strange and undesirable” hardware (an Intel discrete GPU) from Facebook Marketplace at a substantial discount to any new machine with the same performance. Perhaps consider that route if you’re just looking for a stopgap?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#414

Post by undersuit »

Melatonic wrote: post #287
undersuit wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://cdn.multitronic.fi/media/a/3/mmo_41700684_1565162938... I suggest using an 1x PCI-e adapter because putting a M10 in a M.2 slot is likely going to only have 2 of 4 PCI-e lanes in use. You have to figure out the tradeoff of using a Swap on your, now very expensive as well, Flash storage that may have flashier sequential read and write speeds but doesn't have the ability to sustain random read and write perform…

What about using one of those fancier enterprise Optane drives (that are also larger) either as a swap or - dedicated drive for writing or reading huge amounts of small files ? The Intel P5800x is the opposite of cheap but from tests I'm seeing the latency and performance is very impressive for some niche use cases

400GB of Optane for $500 is kinda tempting now(also the E1.s form factor p5801x). I run my P5800x on my NAS for small files and metadata. They're the fastest but I wouldn't suggest running out and buying one because you're avoiding a 16GB to 32GB upgrade, RAM is still faster. Use it as a caching or swap device when you're running a LLM on a motherboard with maxed out RAM and GPU.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#416

Post by [deleted] »

rickydroll wrote: post #99
apple4ever wrote: post #92

This is why I'm so hesitant to use AI. There are other reasons (for example: the journey is the fun part, not the destination; and I want to learn not have something done for me), but the pressure AI puts on memory and storage is too much for me. I do use it occasionally, mostly to keep tabs on it and for small problem solving (how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA), but that's it…

Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…

[deleted]

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#417

Post by linsomniac »

Arodex wrote: post #404
linsomniac wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>doesn't turn a profit. This isn't the condemnation of AI that you think it is. When you are building an industry, you don't want to be in a "cash cow" phase. Because the person who is willing to reinvest profits (and further: seek and sink investments) into growth and innovation is going to eat your lunch. ~8 years ago my BIL condemned Tesla with "they aren't profitable" and I explained this to him. Now they're a tr…

You are basically describing predatory pricing or dumping, where the goal is not to be the best but to starve your competitors to build a monopoly and gouge customers later. Uber tried that and failed. Now they cost as much as normal taxis if not more. Airbnb tried that and now cost as much as hotels if not more. And tesla is a trillion dollar company on paper only. It can vanish into thin air in a day.

>You are basically describing predatory pricing

I'm describing business. Period. It's incredibly rare to encounter products above a fairly small revenue level (niche products), that haven't come from a company that spent significant time reinvesting profits and therefore being unprofitable. Same for using outside investment.

Yes, there are companies who have burned outside investment on things that didn't pan out.

Love them or hate them, the AI companies are doing a huge amount of research. And research companies have always cost more than they've generated in revenue.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#418

Post by jck86 »

Checking the prices of the components of my build from 2020 is rather frightening. CPU and motherboard should be fine, but the rest of the main components not so much.

Quick comparisons: my DDR4 ram is x2-ish (64GB - 342 -> 648 euros). my HDDs are x2-ish (22TB - 548 -> 988). A new _budget_ GPU I bought end of last year is now +100 euros (just half a year later).

Didn't bother to check the SSD since I mostly need it for the OS and they don't die that often, but that comparison should also not be fun. My current build should last till 2030 so hopefully should be okay if nothing breaks, though I am doubtful these prices are coming all the way down again. Either wait it out, pay about 50% more or lower the capacity by 50%.

The list of shortages and price _gauging_ for the last years is pretty extensive: PS5, Xbox, GPU (first bitcoin, now AI), RAM, HDD/SSD, etc. These shortages are becoming an incessant pain in the ass, on personal computing level but also professionally since replacing hardware is becoming difficult and the cloud bill will only go up too. Well at least we have not been replaced by the clankers, yet.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#419

Post by egorfine »

vannevar wrote: post #175
bob1029 wrote: post #141

One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works. > As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given n…

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

> start selling future chips

So, another futures commodity on CME.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#420

Post by throwaway894345 »

crote wrote: post #281
docjay wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generati…

What do I switch to instead of memory for my AI computer?
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