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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can not use it. You spent your life minus a couple of years not using it. You could totally get back into coding but LLMs have you trapped like a tethered elephant.

Missed the part where they had stopped entirely because of chronic pain? Are you somehow aware of the levels of pain they deal with daily to be able to say they could “totally” do it without?

They didn't say anything about chronic pain, but with that extra context I do understand now.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#402
post #325
post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

I’m pretty sure this is why the “data centers in space” idea just won’t die. Yes, it has so many disadvantages, but it does have one distinct advantage of being outside the Molotov-throwing range of the public.

I think those space datacenters still have control centers on earth

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#403

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

My feeds are full of ads by gaming pc makers now renting out gaming pcs for a monthly fee. NZXT calls it a lease with a 2 year refresh.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#404

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

>doesn't turn a profit. This isn't the condemnation of AI that you think it is. When you are building an industry, you don't want to be in a "cash cow" phase. Because the person who is willing to reinvest profits (and further: seek and sink investments) into growth and innovation is going to eat your lunch. ~8 years ago my BIL condemned Tesla with "they aren't profitable" and I explained this to him. Now they're a tr…

You are basically describing predatory pricing or dumping, where the goal is not to be the best but to starve your competitors to build a monopoly and gouge customers later.

Uber tried that and failed. Now they cost as much as normal taxis if not more. Airbnb tried that and now cost as much as hotels if not more.

And tesla is a trillion dollar company on paper only. It can vanish into thin air in a day.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracte…

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracte…

Or: Supply and demand oscillate in a delayed way based on each other. A quick increase or decrease in one side takes time to ripple, and by the time it does, the organization may have reversed course. An airline overbooks flights. Lots of people get their flights cancelled. Takes six months for the fallout to settle where everyone who got burned booked their future flights on a different airline. 3 months out the air…

None of this suggests to me that enormous demand for semiconductors could be bad for the semiconductor industry.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#407
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

I guess we'll see about that.

Yes, I guess we will find out if high demand for their products is good or bad for an industry.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

Can we stop abusing the technical economic definition of "shortage"? In economics a shortage means the price is too low for the demand quantity, but in everyday usage a shortage means the supply quantity is too low. With the basic supply/demand curve, "shortage" and "discount" are synonyms and I know which word makes more sense to describe the scenario.

What? There's no abuse going on here, because (1) the technical economic definition of "shortage" is simply demand exceeding supply, exactly the same as the everyday meaning; and (2) even if the meanings were different, technical or domain-specific-jargon meanings of words don't trump everyday-use meanings, unless you're in a technical meeting of people within that narrow domain.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how do I know if a random cable that comes with a device I bought is just something USB-C shaped or the real thing? How do I know the same thing on Amazon or whatever other big retailer with thousands of cables I use? The last time I bought one I looked for one with a proper certificate but that eliminated the vast majority of cables on Amazon and I suspect that I ended up buying something ridiculously over engin…

No one explains it this way for some reason, but USB-C "60W" is more like USB-C 20V . All USB C-to-C cables are supposed to be rated to something like 600V by laws and common sense, and 3A by USB-C spec. 20V x 3A = 60W. USB-C in C-to-C configurations require all the PD pins working for voltages to be supplied at all. So all USB-C cables that aren't the ones that actually don't work at all should be able to do that 20…

> Only in rare cases where a C-C cable is wired to make it look like one by being internally wired as C-A-A-C

Such cable would have to be directional, so you'd quickly realize something's wrong with it. I rather meant things like "power-only" cable, which can't exist and be complaint simultaneously. I've also seen non-compliant USB-A to C cables having incorrect/missing resistors and causing troubles.

In any case, the point was that this is just counterfeit shit to be thrown away. Take literally any other connection standard and I can also make a cable that looks like it's real but doesn't actually work, it's trivial.

You're right that it's much easier to find a USB-C-shaped shitty device than a USB-C-shaped shitty cable - and it's astonishing how little would usually be needed to make it complaint and working correctly. Since using some kinds of cables can mask some of the device's issues, people end up incorrectly blaming the cables.

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