Earlier quoted context omitted.
CXMT is sold out too. https://www.guru3d.com/story/cxmt-dram-capacity-reportedly-s...
There is TWSC: https://en.twsc.com.cn/ Traded as CUSU for end-users: https://en.twsc.com.cn/enCUSU/index.html
2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
391–400 of 513 posts
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#392Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah but DDR3 was faster then and still is now - I can't imagine my M4 Mac having a slightly older version RAM would meaningfully affect me, but another 24GB of it (or whatever I have) would certainly be an improvement. CPUs have L1, L2, L3+ caches too after all.
> Yeah but DDR3 was faster then and still is now USB would be the limiter for both.
I didn't say anything about USB? If you're referring to upthread wanting RAM to be standardised like USB (not standardised on something like USB), I took that to mean backwards compatible slots. (And maybe handicapped forwards compatibility, though why would you.) M.2/PCIe is this way.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#393Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…
You can not use it. You spent your life minus a couple of years not using it. You could totally get back into coding but LLMs have you trapped like a tethered elephant.
Missed the part where they had stopped entirely because of chronic pain? Are you somehow aware of the levels of pain they deal with daily to be able to say they could “totally” do it without?
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#394Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe we can have AI rewrite those programs and optimize for low ram usage
Maybe; if it's a Js / electron app there's a lower boundary though. The main issue is that the web (html/css) is the most versatile UX platform out there, nothing even comes close. You can't build most web apps' unique visual style in any other platform. Yet. Let alone have it crossplatform.
> You can't build most web apps' unique visual style in any other platform.
Every native UI framework I've ever used allows drawing directly to a canvas, and can have literally any visual style that can be created with pixels.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#395Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that anything you said is wrong but I also don't think that memory consumption is going back to the old baseline... well, ever. Memory is just too useful now that you can use it to drive cars and write code.
The problem is that is speculation and the market barriers are currently too high for losing business to be a threat. The two outcomes are (1) you overbuild, you end being wrong, you go bankrupt and lose everything or (2) you are right, but since you didn't overbuild, you lost out on some revenue, but demand still exists 3 years later and you didn't lose everything. In any other business choosing (2) would mean someo…
"In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs."
FWIW - Lots of people seem to believe the "in any other business", but it turns out there are tons and tons of places it is equally untrue, even where there is near zero time or cost barrier to entry.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#396Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't DDR4 like, old and obsolete? From my knowledge, you can't just take a fab that produces DDR4 and make it produce DDR5 or higher. It's kind of a leap that requires replacing a lot of stuff. I would expect that old DDR4 machinery to end up somewhere else, still chugging along. Maybe someone buys the old production and keeps chugging low quality DDR4 or something. To me, it sounds like that didn't happened. Fabs t…
> Isn't DDR4 like, old and obsolete? I'm posting this from a machine that uses DDR3 and is still perfectly capable of meeting my needs.
My comment was in the context of fabrication and how that affects the price of DDR4.
DDR5 fabrication requires a sub 15mm process, much more complex mounting and lots more testing equipment. It means you can't just quickly convert a DDR4 fab to DDR5.
It was meant to explain that DDR4 price increase has nothing to do with supply chain lanes, and it's more of an artificial demand manipulation than anything else.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#397Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve been pricing out my various options but the notion of replacing a 10 year old motherboard with another 10 year old motherboard is kinda lousy. The PC I replaced when I bought this one was such a huge improvement. My options basically boils down to fixing trash that’s falling apart or a sidegrade at best for the same price as what I bought a beast of a PC for 10 freaking years ago. Depressing.
10 year old is still DDR4, and ddr4 is still plenty fine for gaming workloads. AM4 still has some solid options out there, the 5800x3d has 3d vcache and would be an insane upgrade over any… quad core? 6th gen intel? Not sure what the AMD at the time was. 14th gen intel supports both ddr4/5 if you wanted the ram upgrade potential, but it… well, I remember it being pretty sketchy perf/degradation wise for a while, so m…
Thanks for the advice gone look into it more this weekend
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#398.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#399Earlier quoted context omitted.
[not an expert so I could be totally wrong] I was also just talking about the physical space. Even if the machines on the entire line have to be replaced it still probably makes sense for a company to transition in situ - displacing the old line. There's the lease for the land and building, people's commutes are structured around a certain physical location, air conditioning and electricity are already there, etc...…
Even if they need to replace every single lithography machine, there are a lot of other machines that probably don't need to be replaced for any given upgrade. Like everything related to it being a clean room; All the logistics robots which move wafers around; All the machines that deposit layers of material like CVD/AVD/Sputtering; The various machines that do the actual etching; The furnaces; The inspection and qua…
That is somehow inaccurate. DDR5 has significantly more challenging requirements.
The inspection and quality control equipment is one of those that you can't just reuse without careful transitioning. DDR5 has much higher speeds, on-die ECC and all sorts of complications DDR4 doesn't have.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#400So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…
>doesn't turn a profit.
This isn't the condemnation of AI that you think it is.
When you are building an industry, you don't want to be in a "cash cow" phase. Because the person who is willing to reinvest profits (and further: seek and sink investments) into growth and innovation is going to eat your lunch.
~8 years ago my BIL condemned Tesla with "they aren't profitable" and I explained this to him. Now they're a trillion dollar company.