331–340 of 493 posts
So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…
So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…
Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.
Hoping all these DCs and AI whatnots turn out to be a flop, so that we’ll get plenty ddr5 at sale price :D
I'm sure there will be a ton of standard DDR5 sticks, but not so much from AI-only datacenters.
How is a new business going to compete with incumbents that buy 100% of the necessary components needed to enter the market? Is no one else allowed to compete in this market anymore going forward?
Hoping all these DCs and AI whatnots turn out to be a flop, so that we’ll get plenty ddr5 at sale price :D
IIRC this wont be possible as a lot of them aren't being packaged on traditional DDR memory boards. They're being put on things like the MI350X. I'm sure there will be a ton of standard DDR5 sticks, but not so much from AI-only datacenters.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.
If you can only make X number of widgets, you must increase the price until demand stabilizes at X.
One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works. > As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given n…
>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why must you increase the price?
The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…
With the basic supply/demand curve, "shortage" and "discount" are synonyms and I know which word makes more sense to describe the scenario.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.
> The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist I’m confused because this reads like a denial of basic economics. If the price is high enough, the chip will be produced for you. Do you mean because of the production lead time, higher prices won’t result in increased production? Commodities like corn have been managing this for a long time… what’s special…
It's a frictionless market in a vacuum right? No barriers to entry. You could make one right now if you wanted.