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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we absolutely do not: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB For starters, The slowest sticks of DDR(x) are often slower than DDR(x-1). The issue is never capacity, but rather, performance. The real nonsense? USB? It's a mess. Pick a USB cable and buy it from ANY retailer, let's make it easier, buy a USB-C cable. What is the data rate (depends on cable quality and length), Does it support power delivery? If so, how ma…

> Pick a USB cable and buy it from ANY retailer, let's make it easier, buy a USB-C cable. Okay, let's assume it's a USB-C cable and not just something USB-C shaped that pretends to be one. > Does it support power delivery? Yes. > If so, how many watts? Always at least 60W (3A). Up to 240W if it's e-marked. > What is the data rate Depends whether it's a USB 2.0-only cable (480Mbps) or a complete cable (20Gbps). Possib…

But how do I know if a random cable that comes with a device I bought is just something USB-C shaped or the real thing? How do I know the same thing on Amazon or whatever other big retailer with thousands of cables I use?

The last time I bought one I looked for one with a proper certificate but that eliminated the vast majority of cables on Amazon and I suspect that I ended up buying something ridiculously over engineered.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#323
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why must you increase the price?

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

> The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them

The people who really want the chips, and are able to pay a lot more than $X for them.

Please can y'all stop pretending that raising prices allocates resources by need and willingness to pay? With the level of spending power imbalance, the person who wants something and has too much money will ALWAYS squeeze out the people who actually need something and have less money. Always. No other factors are considered by the market.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you just get a MB only for now? What mandates an entire new batch of hardware?

I’ve been pricing out my various options but the notion of replacing a 10 year old motherboard with another 10 year old motherboard is kinda lousy. The PC I replaced when I bought this one was such a huge improvement. My options basically boils down to fixing trash that’s falling apart or a sidegrade at best for the same price as what I bought a beast of a PC for 10 freaking years ago. Depressing.

Same, which is why im looking at some older epyc CPUs + ddr4 memory. the only issue being that i wont be able to use my current DDR4 ram in that new system but still... just hunting those ebay listings for a good combo from someone trusted (preferably local)

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#325
post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

I’m pretty sure this is why the “data centers in space” idea just won’t die. Yes, it has so many disadvantages, but it does have one distinct advantage of being outside the Molotov-throwing range of the public.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

> The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them The people who really want the chips, and are able to pay a lot more than $X for them. Please can y'all stop pretending that raising prices allocates resources by need and willingness to pay? With the level of spending power imbalance, the person who wants something and has too much money will ALWAYS squeeze out the people…

The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (though it may take time).

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracte…

Or: Supply and demand oscillate in a delayed way based on each other. A quick increase or decrease in one side takes time to ripple, and by the time it does, the organization may have reversed course.

An airline overbooks flights. Lots of people get their flights cancelled. Takes six months for the fallout to settle where everyone who got burned booked their future flights on a different airline. 3 months out the airline has to cut the number of flights and cut prices in the face of falling revenue to reclaim market share. As soon as they do that, they're flooded with too many bookings. So they take the bookings and overbook flights again, but it takes time to bring the new flights online.

It's not a 1:1 situation. Each time you miss the market you wobble a little further until all the inefficiencies of bad predictions eat you up.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#328
So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... help me with the logic here... who's gonna buy the stuff those companies sell?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#330

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

Not sure there is much actual profit in LLMs. It will be interesting to see promise meet reality, indeed.
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