Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

ign.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

381–390 of 484 posts

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#381

Post by [deleted] »

tsimionescu wrote: post #345
crote wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generati…

> Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If potatoes suddenly became $1000/kg, everyone would agree that there is a shortage of potatoes. While sure, people won't starve and will eat other things, it doesn't change the basic fact that there aren't e…

[deleted]

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#382

Post by swiftcoder »

crote wrote: post #281
docjay wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generati…

> Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg.

The year 1845 called, and they'd like a word

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#383

Post by cmrdporcupine »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #230
stephenitis wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part of your PC died?

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed. GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous. The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad. Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices. I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravaga…

Similar thing happened here with my kid's 10 year old gaming PC. Motherboard dead. Had an existing 1070 and 16GB of DDR4. New DDR5 wasn't going to happen. New GPU wasn't going to happen. So I just got a Ryzen5 and an AM5 motherboard and re-used everything else. It runs just fine. It's fast enough.

Same I just built a dual Broadwell Xeon E5 server / NAS. Why? Because someone local was selling a cheap Chinese X99 motherboard, two Xeons, and 64GB of DDR4 RAM for $150 CAD. The deal was too good. So I built a machine around it. (Though what I should have done was shove it into an old Dell T630/730, and saved myself some hassle.)

Now is the time of re-using old tech.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#384

Post by 1718627440 »

apple4ever wrote: post #92

This is why I'm so hesitant to use AI. There are other reasons (for example: the journey is the fun part, not the destination; and I want to learn not have something done for me), but the pressure AI puts on memory and storage is too much for me. I do use it occasionally, mostly to keep tabs on it and for small problem solving (how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA), but that's it…

First, I am kinda the same.

> how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA

Honestly for most things, the actual documentation is the best resource. I needed to learn to stop looking for solutions to my issue on various fora (like SO) and just read the primary documentation from the vendor. Have a look at dev.mysql.com or mariadb.com/docs/server

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#385

Post by alasano »

pdimitar wrote: post #246
throwatdem12311 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been pricing out my various options but the notion of replacing a 10 year old motherboard with another 10 year old motherboard is kinda lousy. The PC I replaced when I bought this one was such a huge improvement. My options basically boils down to fixing trash that’s falling apart or a sidegrade at best for the same price as what I bought a beast of a PC for 10 freaking years ago. Depressing.

Oh I agree, I am just saying that if you really did not want to spend, there are obviously options. I am thinking of promoting my super old and long-time-not-used PC with an i7-3770 and 32GB DDR3 RAM to a server and I bought a ~$45 motherboard for it some months ago, now I have to bother finding it a good NAS case and buy at least two HDDs (the real cost here). Point is, quite a lot of hardware can still do a lot. I…

My Truenas setup runs on a i7-3770 with 16GB DDR3, still good tbh. Have a whole bunch of self hosted apps running on it exposed through tailscale.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#386

Post by Forgeties79 »

cgio wrote: post #336
HumblyTossed wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can only make X number of widgets, you must increase the price until demand stabilizes at X.

The price will increase in secondary market.

To some degree sure but how many people/businesses are tearing ram out of their existing hardware to resell?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#387

Post by Forgeties79 »

wisty wrote: post #326
franga2000 wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them The people who really want the chips, and are able to pay a lot more than $X for them. Please can y'all stop pretending that raising prices allocates resources by need and willingness to pay? With the level of spending power imbalance, the person who wants something and has too much money will ALWAYS squeeze out the people…

The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (though it may take time).

>though it may take time

That’s what makes this so distinct so it probably shouldn’t just be some offhand parenthetical at the end. It’s incredibly expensive, it takes a long time, and it’s incredibly specialized. You can absolutely forget the idea of a “disruptive startup” entering that space too.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#388

Post by cmrdporcupine »

rufasterisco wrote: post #367

i feel like 90% of complaints about ram shortages i've read here could be solved by realizing that we mostly update devices for status reasons we would collectively all be better off by being forced to stick to older devices, value software optimized for proper resource management, and learn that instead of reflexively accepting "problems" we can see them as choices enjoy the rat race

Me, I bloody well love optimizing and performance tuning software. And love "retro" hardware. I'm fully on board with this world of squeezing every last drop of juice out of older systems. It's fun.

I have a minion in a terminal grinding away optimizing CPU-only LLM inference on Dual Xeon E5s. Why? Because it's neat.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#389

Post by the__alchemist »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #211

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

I hear you. I'm the fool who bought an RTX4080 because "$1600 is too much for a GPU". (RTX4090; shipped to your door from the nvidia website). I don't think there's any reasonable upgrade path right nor or in the near future which would have been better than just buying that.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#390

Post by spockz »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #387
wisty wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cure for high prices is high prices. Selling out creates scalpers and sometimes even a speculative bubble. High prices means producers invest in new fabs (though it may take time).

>though it may take time That’s what makes this so distinct so it probably shouldn’t just be some offhand parenthetical at the end. It’s incredibly expensive, it takes a long time, and it’s incredibly specialized. You can absolutely forget the idea of a “disruptive startup” entering that space too.

Maybe not a traditional disruptive startup but isn’t CXMT from China stepping in to build all those fabs?

Previously investing in that space didn’t make a lot of sense. Now that there are a lot of consumers willing to buy something they can build and sell at a price between the previous low point and the current high point.

The only tricky thing is that the current shortages need to continue until the fans are well up and running.

Even if the supply side suddenly crashes due to the AI bubble bursting or someone inventing a way to only need 1/10 of RAM, I can imagine them keeping the prices relatively high.

Post reply on HN