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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#222

Seems like we need a USB equivalent standard to RAM sticks. I have lots and lots of old (1-2GB), intercompatible sticks sitting. Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed.

> Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed. Your computer already supports that. It's called "swap".

A better SSD can get up to a passable GB/s rate, but when you're waiting tens of microseconds instead of tens of nanoseconds you can't use it the same way. And a worse SSD is 10x slower in GB/s too, compared to old super cheap RAM.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is they could charge more. They could. And people would pay it.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

If you can only make X number of widgets, you must increase the price until demand stabilizes at X.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we absolutely do not: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB For starters, The slowest sticks of DDR(x) are often slower than DDR(x-1). The issue is never capacity, but rather, performance. The real nonsense? USB? It's a mess. Pick a USB cable and buy it from ANY retailer, let's make it easier, buy a USB-C cable. What is the data rate (depends on cable quality and length), Does it support power delivery? If so, how ma…

> Pick a USB cable and buy it from ANY retailer, let's make it easier, buy a USB-C cable. Okay, let's assume it's a USB-C cable and not just something USB-C shaped that pretends to be one. > Does it support power delivery? Yes. > If so, how many watts? Always at least 60W (3A). Up to 240W if it's e-marked. > What is the data rate Depends whether it's a USB 2.0-only cable (480Mbps) or a complete cable (20Gbps). Possib…

I don't know why you got downvoted so much. There's no such thing as a 5 watt USB cable from a reputable source and people need to stop acting like there is. 60 is a very good baseline. There's no such thing as a power only USB cable either.

If we're counting fake products then we need to count those RGB sticks that have no RAM in them.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is they could charge more. They could. And people would pay it.

This is what consumers are always told. Prices go up as demand goes up or scarcity increases.

But once you get past econ101, you are taught how markets react to percieved bubbles, how those with near monopolies would rather pocket a windfall now than risk investing in future expansions.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist I’m confused because this reads like a denial of basic economics. If the price is high enough, the chip will be produced for you. Do you mean because of the production lead time, higher prices won’t result in increased production? Commodities like corn have been managing this for a long time… what’s special…

It takes a billion dollars and years to produce a new chip fab line. So no, it cannot just be produced for you on a dime.

Also supply contracts exist which is what started all this: OpenAI signed huge orders for most of the market all at once. No one had any chance to properly include that information in their pricing or bidding.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#227
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Mos…

The headline says "sold out". That doesn't mean prices will go up, that means the memory will not be available at all for many companies and the products they make will not be available to consumers.

The companies making phones will be able to get new memory chips.

Many smaller companies will have issues getting enough, but even they could buy something with memory and rip it out. When you're willing to pay a hefty multiple, you can outbid other people. The shortages are not nearly bad enough to escape standard supply and demand.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2% was already optimistic once we decided we were buying too much from China.

Literally put a 50% tax on everything and then said it'll only raise prices 2%

Imports from China to the US are around 1% of US GDP.

Total imports are maybe 14%? But not as highly tariffed.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

> The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist I’m confused because this reads like a denial of basic economics. If the price is high enough, the chip will be produced for you. Do you mean because of the production lead time, higher prices won’t result in increased production? Commodities like corn have been managing this for a long time… what’s special…

The capital investment needed to bring new chip fabs online and to staff them is likely orders of magnitude higher than that needed to buy land to grow corn on. And then the ratio of investment to sell price on that land + infrastructure is probably significantly worse for chip fabs that potentially aren't needed to satisfy demand anymore a few years from now.

"If the price is high enough" is of course technically true, but the scale of what high means in this context is important.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#230

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

What part of your PC died?

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed.

GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous.

The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad.

Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices.

I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravagant and gave you state of the art graphics.

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