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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#341

Post by inigyou »

daishi55 wrote: post #241
vannevar wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem isn't the price. No matter how much you pay, you can't take delivery of a chip that doesn't exist. Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. But that's a tricky window to maneuver through.

I don’t understand how there being essentially unlimited demand for their products that far exceeds supply and is driving up prices accordingly is somehow a bad sign for the industry? > Now, you could raise prices to the point where you destroy demand. You know supply and demand is like a curve right, you can find an optimal equilibrium? It’s not a cliff that you can fall off.

It's good for the memory chip industry. It's bad for almost every other one.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#342

Post by inigyou »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #230
stephenitis wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part of your PC died?

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed. GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous. The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad. Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices. I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravaga…

Buy an old motherboard compatible with your existing CPU. Reuse the CPU and RAM.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#343

Post by inigyou »

milch wrote: post #289
pdimitar wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you just get a MB only for now? What mandates an entire new batch of hardware?

I've been in the same boat since it seems something about the memory controller on my gaming PC's MB is broken, but price wise it feels like it just doesn't make sense. I could get something from eBay relatively cheap but then I'd probably spend an hour disassembling and reassembling just to maybe learn that the eBay unit has some equivalent issue or is slightly broken in some other way. I could old new stock for out…

Last time I replaced an old MB it was only $60. What prices are you seeing?

It wasn't the same model or vendor MB but it was a compatible one. Same chipset.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#344

Post by pizzaiolo »

tacocataco wrote: post #334

Why stop at 2027? Why not just declare that you get everything produced by humanity for infinity years? How is a new business going to compete with incumbents that buy 100% of the necessary components needed to enter the market? Is no one else allowed to compete in this market anymore going forward?

It's not permanent. It's only this way until the bubble pops.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#345

Post by tsimionescu »

crote wrote: post #281
docjay wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg. If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generati…

> Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg.

If potatoes suddenly became $1000/kg, everyone would agree that there is a shortage of potatoes. While sure, people won't starve and will eat other things, it doesn't change the basic fact that there aren't enough potatoes.

The situation with RAM is even worse. If I'm trying to build and sell computing devices, I need RAM. Whether no one is willing to sell RAM at all, or whether they'll sell it only for 10x yesteryears's price, it doesn't make much difference to me, I'm still going out of business. Sure, that will then make demand technically go down, but not the shortage.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#346

Post by inigyou »

esskay wrote: post #333
tiotempestade wrote: post #329

Hoping all these DCs and AI whatnots turn out to be a flop, so that we’ll get plenty ddr5 at sale price :D

IIRC this wont be possible as a lot of them aren't being packaged on traditional DDR memory boards. They're being put on things like the MI350X. I'm sure there will be a ton of standard DDR5 sticks, but not so much from AI-only datacenters.

China has a cottage industry around taking apart circuit boards and reusing the chips in unexpected ways. That's how you get desktop MBs with soldered laptop CPUs. HBM and DDR aren't compatible as far as I'm aware, but they might be able to do something. Maybe they'll invent a converter chip.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#347

Post by Chrontius »

HaloZero wrote: post #248
throwatdem12311 wrote: post #211

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

How does the steam machine compare to building your own?

It has a lot of benefits that aren't easily priced in.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#348

Post by inigyou »

pizzaiolo wrote: post #344
tacocataco wrote: post #334

Why stop at 2027? Why not just declare that you get everything produced by humanity for infinity years? How is a new business going to compete with incumbents that buy 100% of the necessary components needed to enter the market? Is no one else allowed to compete in this market anymore going forward?

It's not permanent. It's only this way until the bubble pops.

With infinite money printing will that ever happen?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#349

Post by inigyou »

tripleee wrote: post #320
pkulak wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices rising is inflation.

from what I understood it, at least originally, was used to mean monetary inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation

No, that's copium from libertarians. I don't have an issue from them also using the word inflation to describe something getting bigger, but it's different from prices going up, which is the definition of inflation.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#350

Post by pmontra »

re-thc wrote: post #312
crote wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are happy to play with AI when the tech companies are burning hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize it. It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments. Which directly leads to the next big development: all the big players are investing in silicon with "baked-in" models, like [0,1]. Turns out you don't need an expensive general-purpos…

> It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments. Everyone. Open models are going to keep prices down. A lot of current models are more than usable. Self-hosting would have been an option if hardware prices get back to sane values. The insane investments have to do with insane over-valuations, VCs involved and hence media spam on it. Chinese labs…

Prices must raise a lot to make self hosting mainstream or at least fairly popular.

Yesterday a coworker posted on a customer's Slack the specs of a box he is planning to buy to run local models. It's about 5k Euro. I am paying 18 Euro per month for Claude Pro and I'm going through a migration (almost a total rewrite) of a web app from Vue 2 / Vuetify 2 / Vuex to Vue 3 / Vuetify 4 / Pinia. I never hit the 6 hours limit. I could consider running an equivalent model on a 500 Euro machine (about 2 years of Claude Pro) but 5k is 20 years and that box will be obsolete or will have failed beyond repair (no spares) much earlier than that.

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