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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

261–270 of 311 posts

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's You should really reevaluate the news sources you use if you think that

I mean Russia at least has a point that there are some people who live in Donbas who would be open to joining Russia, at least at the onset of the war. Israel doesn’t even have that, almost no one in Lebanon wants to join Israel. Outside of the settlements almost no one in the West Bank wants to join Israel.

There will like be settlements in Lebanon. And then Israel will need an expanded buffer zone and then rinse and repeat.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#262
post #208
post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

US just gonna trust Iran regarding their nuclear program? No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.

Its not about nukes. Its about controlling the oil supply to squeeze China. China controls rare earths so they can put the squeeze on the USA. To counter that USA wants to control the world's oil supply.

Nordstream (Russia), Venezuela, Iran.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#264
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

Trump hasn’t (so far) demonstrated the ability to stop Israel from bombing and invading Lebanon, so I’m not sure what we can hope will change before Netanyahu leaves office.

There's a theory that BB is the bad cop, USA the good cop. USA lets BB do the dirty work and gets the blame. Every time there's a pending "deal" with Iran, BB skuttles it by attacking Lebanon or Gaza etc. What BB does is with USA's blessing. USA doesn't want a deal with Iran. USA wants control of the oil and Iran regime toppled.

It's ultimately about controlling the world's oil supplies to put the squeeze on China.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#265
post #116
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iran has defacto control over traffic in the strait. what changes?

A toll booth. There have been persistent rumours that Iran will be allowed to charge new "environmental fees" for access, "to protect the ecosystem of the Strait" or somesuch. (Secretary of War and former Fox News weekend anchor Pete Hegseth was on the news just this evening saying that the USA has been in control of the Strait the whole time, so I think the USA is arguing against your (correct) characterisation of t…

>(Secretary of War and former Fox News weekend anchor Pete Hegseth was on the news just this evening saying that the USA has been in control of the Strait the whole time, so I think the USA is arguing against your (correct) characterisation of the situation.)

Essentially, the USA has indeed been the one keeping the straight closed. They wanted oil going to China stopped. That was the reason the Navy was there.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#266
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran gained international credibility by adhering strictly to the JCPOA, even long after the Trump admin broke it. I doubt they will squander that by not adhering to whatever deal they negotiate next.

Following the rules got them bombed, so why would they make that mistake again?

It's a good question, but Iran has a new weapon now: The Strait of Hormuz. Maybe that's enough leverage that they retain that they will stop their nuclear program for a while.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#267
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Following the rules got them bombed, so why would they make that mistake again?

It's a good question, but Iran has a new weapon now: The Strait of Hormuz. Maybe that's enough leverage that they retain that they will stop their nuclear program for a while.

The Straight of Hormuz isn't new, though. IIUC Iran did exactly what war gamers would have expected them to do.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#268
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the contrary, the war has proven to Iran how critical their nuclear program is to the regime's, and maybe Iran's, survival. US wouldn't go into such a war against Russia, because of their nuclear program. They wouldn't have attacked Iran if they already had a standing nuclear program with strategic nuclear weaponary. What are their options now? Strategically focus on rebuilding their defense capabilities with most…

You are theoretically right to assume this but practically this will never happen (i.e iran's nuclear ambitions) .. let me explain As Putin once quipped, "having the desire to do something is very different from having the ability to do something" .. Iran can desire as much as they like to "want" and "have" a nuclear program .. but the objective truth is that US just crushed the intellectual and philosophical source…

Your argument here is disjointed. The claims that, 1) Iran does not desire a nuclear device, and 2) The United States was justified in striking the IRGC do nothing to refute the parent.

"Practically" speaking, this deal is not any more potent than the JCPOA pinkie-promise. It returns us to the status quo of hoping that Iran doesn't develop a nuclear weapon, which was the exact same flimsy flypaper logic that failed to stop South Africa and North Korea from making their nukes.

If the goal of this war is to denuclearize Iran, then it has failed on both accounts. Justified or not, the US air campaign eg. Midnight Hammer failed to prevent escalation and deprive Iran of access to their nuclear material. The domestic uranium mines, centrifuge factories, nuclear equipment stockpiles and underground missile cities all appear to have survived the strikes. Desire it or not, Iran has nuclear research within their reach, and Israel will continue to use it to manufacture support for a bloody land invasion.

> they'd rather see Iran have a nuclear capability than admitting that the defanging of Iran's nuclear program has been a good thing for the world

Again, this argument is disconnected. Nuclear proliferation is widely detested, which is why this war has been so seriously criticized. America's air campaign would not defang Iran's nuclear program, officers knew this going into the conflict and warned that the collateral damage would not be worth the outcome.

Even if this conflict did succeed in deterring Iran from a nuclear bomb, then it's a return to the 2017-era status quo that Trump disrupted by ripping up the JCPOA. From a nonproliferation standpoint, this was a bloody and pointless war.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#269
post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

arguably, Israel won't stop, and it will tank the deal. It already has set it back a few times.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically, what we had before Trump started this stupid war at Bibi's behest.

Well, except for the tens of billions we spent, and the $324 billion we’re giving Iran, and also our ability to exert any force on the world.

don't forget, you know, all of the people who died
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