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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

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Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#251

Post by HDThoreaun »

TiredOfLife wrote: post #204
hnbad wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war between Israel and the US vs Iran that was literally initiated by the US after a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. Also Israel is a rogue state that has been committing war crimes including genocide and is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's. It's in everyone's interest that Israel be either stopped or undergo a regime change that abandons Apartheid and creates a multicultura…

> is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's You should really reevaluate the news sources you use if you think that

I mean Russia at least has a point that there are some people who live in Donbas who would be open to joining Russia, at least at the onset of the war. Israel doesn’t even have that, almost no one in Lebanon wants to join Israel. Outside of the settlements almost no one in the West Bank wants to join Israel.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#252

Post by zahlman »

ergocoder wrote: post #170
cosmicgadget wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money. Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.

It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before.

"The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that only consider the investment itself). Hiring a well-compensated "hedge" fund manager (many of these funds are not at all about hedging) is barely any more "effort" than buying and holding SPY, as the work is being entirely delegated. Many strategies are dependent on that level of wealth (or designed to address problems that only apply to that level of wealth) for tax-related reasons.

There is plenty of evidence that most lay people who try to time the market lose out on average, and I see no reason to expect you to be an exception. Active trading loses out on average to indexes by mathematical necessity, as both grow on average proportional to the total value of equities, but active traders (and holders of actively managed funds) are exposed to higher fees. The only winners there are the market makers.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#253

Post by zahlman »

cosmicgadget wrote: post #163
zahlman wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time in the market beats timing the market, bears have predicted (large number) out of the last (smaller number) recessions, etc. None of this is novel. "Predicting" a stock crash due to political reasons is effectively just a fancy restatement of anti-those-politics views; and it isn't substantive, especially when the prediction comes with a years-long window.

You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

> Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

Pardon; are you asserting there is mountains of evidence that the bears have not, in fact, claimed impending recession far more often than actual recession occurred? Or that market timers are generally successful (are you not familiar with e.g. https://longbets.org/362/ )?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#254

Post by zahlman »

ergocoder wrote: post #58
LPisGood wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning. Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the c…

The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. This cannot go on for much longer. I will be parking my money at a safer place

> The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane.

A quick glance at charts shows that VIX is not at all out of line with historical patterns, and asking ChatGPT to crunch some numbers confirms that. The "liberation day" spike was not nearly as bad as in 2008 or for COVID, and in fact not much more than events in 2010 and 2011 that people don't even have names for.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#255

Post by gyanchawdhary »

piva00 wrote: post #243
gyanchawdhary wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I think you are in some kind of wishful thinking world. The USA and Israel have killed dozens of leaders, creating a vacuum which is being filled by other radicals just like the ones before. The IRGC is still there, the hardliners are taking more control of the government, I can't picture the state you mention "crushed philosophically and intellectually" at all. Whoever is left to rebuild Iran is going to be from the…

[dead]

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#256

Post by Hikikomori »

tristanj wrote: post #120
wolvoleo wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It did to weapons grade. It only permitted enrichment for energy purposes. And was validated by inspections. The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.

The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely. JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-y…

Not gonna bring up that the US is now paying Iran 25B + who knows how much in reparations? Weird how you forget this important talking point of yours.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#257

Post by Hikikomori »

DrProtic wrote: post #228
swat535 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iranian here as well. This war was a complete disaster, US bombed our kids, our homes and killed more than 3000 people. I’ll be the first one in line to spit on IRGC. I had my cousin sent to Evin for six months after the Mahsa uprising. She was tortured and will never live a normal life again. But I’m glad IRGC defended the land and didn’t let US and Israel turn it into another Syria. I think that internal Iranian is…

Dictators are established when someone is attacking or meddling in a country, which UK and US were genuinely doing from 1950s till now in Iran. Current government is a product of western actions in Iran. It’s short sighted. If in 1950s they left Iran alone, the IRGC would disappear a long time ago because their strong grip would not be needed nor justified. But every western leader wants to record a win, and constant…

Can even go back another 100 years of Imperialist England and Russia fucking over Iran. With the current regime being a result of the 50's coup that were a result of BP/England wanting to keep most profits of oil, which they had done since early 1900s.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#258

Post by newaccountman2 »

mostafah wrote: post #215
swat535 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iranian here as well. This war was a complete disaster, US bombed our kids, our homes and killed more than 3000 people. I’ll be the first one in line to spit on IRGC. I had my cousin sent to Evin for six months after the Mahsa uprising. She was tortured and will never live a normal life again. But I’m glad IRGC defended the land and didn’t let US and Israel turn it into another Syria. I think that internal Iranian is…

> Right now half the country supports the IRGC Where the hell did you get that number from?

They are probably projecting the split that exists in Western countries between liberals and conservatives.

It's mostly accurate to say, e.g., that "about half the US supports Trump", though he seems hell-bent on driving that number further down lol

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#259

Post by drnick1 »

kelnos wrote: post #196
drnick1 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that we should have taken "their" money and used it against them. This is how you deal with enemies.

That's naive and simplistic. Your counterparty isn't going to agree to a deal if they get nothing in return. "Stop doing nuclear stuff or else" isn't a deal, it's a demand. And this fiasco proves that the US can't really do enough militarily if Iran just decides they don't want to abide by a deal/demand. Sure, this war was costly and painful for Iran, but they're coming out of it with better terms than they had befor…

> but they're coming out of it with better terms than they had before the war.

That is precisely the problem. We have not done enough militarily when we clearly had the upper hand in the first few weeks of the war. We sank their boats, destroyed their planes and anti-aircraft batteries and could freely fly all over the country destroying targets at will. The Trump administration has clearly failed to finish what it started and has left Israel and the GCC countries in a worst position than if it hadn't done anything at all. The "deal" is a pathetic outcome.

We should return to combat operations and finish what we started. This is not about invading the country. It is about neutering the regime so that it can't threaten the region and international waterways. The most important aspect of this is bleeding it dry economically by destroying their ability to export oil. Track and sink the "shadow fleet" anywhere in the world, carpet bomb oil production facilities, and destroy bridges and railways that allow trade by land. Make it clear that any damages caused to neighboring countries will be paid for by Iran using their frozen assets.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#260

Post by bhouston »

rasz wrote: post #235
bhouston wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nothing significantly different from the Obama P5+1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal

other than $300B war reparations

Gaza hasn’t got its $10b funding yet so do you really think Iran will get $300B? And remember most of the fund are just confiscated Iranian funds anyhow.
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