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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

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Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#231

Post by gyanchawdhary »

bulbar wrote: post #210
gyanchawdhary wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

To the contrary, the war has proven to Iran how critical their nuclear program is to the regime's, and maybe Iran's, survival. US wouldn't go into such a war against Russia, because of their nuclear program. They wouldn't have attacked Iran if they already had a standing nuclear program with strategic nuclear weaponary. What are their options now? Strategically focus on rebuilding their defense capabilities with most…

You are theoretically right to assume this but practically this will never happen (i.e iran's nuclear ambitions) .. let me explain

As Putin once quipped, "having the desire to do something is very different from having the ability to do something" ..

Iran can desire as much as they like to "want" and "have" a nuclear program .. but the objective truth is that US just crushed the intellectual and philosophical source of this desire by eliminating their rolodex of ayatollahs ... whether you agree or not with this approach is a different matter but US has been successful in scrubbing the source of that desire so aggressively that the new hopefuls are simply exhausted to play the nuclear long game ..

Now at a personal note, I live between Dubai and London (previously Hamburg) and all these places have a significant Iranian diaspore and not a single one of those people in my circle is against what the US did and is doing in Iran ..

What hilarious though is that some HN folks have such vitriolic hate for Trump (based on the comments of the OP's post) that they'd rather see Iran have a nuclear capability than admitting that the defanging of Iran's nuclear program has been a good thing for the world ...

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#232

Post by gyanchawdhary »

piva00 wrote: post #225
gyanchawdhary wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Much the contrary, it showed them that without a nuclear weapon they can be attacked willy-nilly by the USA/Israel, without a nuke it doesn't matter what kind of agreement or deal they reach it can always be reneged. Iran looks at North Korea and want that kind of regime stability, at least from outside threats.

[flagged]

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#233

Post by defrost »

gyanchawdhary wrote: post #231
bulbar wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the contrary, the war has proven to Iran how critical their nuclear program is to the regime's, and maybe Iran's, survival. US wouldn't go into such a war against Russia, because of their nuclear program. They wouldn't have attacked Iran if they already had a standing nuclear program with strategic nuclear weaponary. What are their options now? Strategically focus on rebuilding their defense capabilities with most…

You are theoretically right to assume this but practically this will never happen (i.e iran's nuclear ambitions) .. let me explain As Putin once quipped, "having the desire to do something is very different from having the ability to do something" .. Iran can desire as much as they like to "want" and "have" a nuclear program .. but the objective truth is that US just crushed the intellectual and philosophical source…

> and not a single one of those people in my circle is against what the US did and is doing in Iran ..

Interestingly the Iranians I've talked to (Eg: a married couple both with nuclear physics degrees from Iran who bailed out long long ago) would prefer to see Iran still being monitored and kept in check - they are concerned that Trump has not defanged the HEU program, merely scattered and set it back somewhat, while at the same time increasing the likelihood of rogue use of HEU and or those cache's being fed into an actual unchecked weapons program elsewhere.

A big issue, not so much discussed, is where exactly has the HEU ended up, in how many parts, and under whose control. Was it buried under rubble? Is it secure in a void? Was it moved and sequestered into multiple parts before Trump went loco?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#234

Post by seszett »

comrade1234 wrote: post #67
petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

> Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

"Come across as", as much as I despise Iran's regime, it seems like it is de facto the only country actually doing anything other than strong words for Lebanon.

Too bad the US blunder happened too late for Gaza and Palestine.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#235

Post by rasz »

bhouston wrote: post #74
petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

This is nothing significantly different from the Obama P5+1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal

other than $300B war reparations

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#236

Post by ursuscamp »

bulbar wrote: post #208
petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

US just gonna trust Iran regarding their nuclear program? No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.

Iran gained international credibility by adhering strictly to the JCPOA, even long after the Trump admin broke it. I doubt they will squander that by not adhering to whatever deal they negotiate next.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#237

Post by thunky »

ursuscamp wrote: post #236
bulbar wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US just gonna trust Iran regarding their nuclear program? No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.

Iran gained international credibility by adhering strictly to the JCPOA, even long after the Trump admin broke it. I doubt they will squander that by not adhering to whatever deal they negotiate next.

Following the rules got them bombed, so why would they make that mistake again?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#239

Post by firesteelrain »

drbojingle wrote: post #203
firesteelrain wrote: post #43

I don’t know how this is worse for the US or the World. Iran’s leadership and military was decapitated. It’s in the best interest of US, Europe and Israel and the Middle East. The nuclear program had a huge setback. What are the counter arguments to these facts if we really end up in peace with Iran along with the bad actors gone too?

Yes, removing leadership is very important. It's why the US does it every 4 to 8 years. The Iranians aren't gone just because they lost a leader. If anything they proved resilient. The biggest problems with all of this seem to be the knock-on effects, as well as the lead-up. Does this new deal actually do more than Obama's? Doubtful. Obama's didn't come with a girls' school blown to bits or a world leader assassinate…

[dead]

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#240

Post by dofm »

foogazi wrote: post #160
gyanchawdhary wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Why is Iran getting any money out of this ? How do they still have any cards ?

They have had cards since they demonstrated, in mid March, that they would blockade the Strait, could destroy the Kuwaiti oil economy with very cheap drones, and were prepared to do the same to more US allies.

The USA functionally lost this war on the 20th of March when the threat to Kuwait was demonstrated. Everything that has happened since was just delaying the inevitable. It was a mistake.

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