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There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

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Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#221

Post by mkl95 »

dxuh wrote: post #64
modeless wrote: post #22

> But this government [...] I'm hearing a lot of this kind of thing. "Oh if only it was a different government". I'm sorry, but when you cry out for government involvement, it's not always going to be coming from the government you personally wanted. This is the whole problem with government involvement! I don't think that message is getting through, but it's the real lesson that should be learned here.

I think it should be noted that the current government, which did this silly thing, belongs to a party that is pretty much advertising on wanting to be a smaller government that gets involved less. That is a large part of why people vote for them.

> belongs to a party that is pretty much advertising on wanting to be a smaller government that gets involved less.

It's the other way around. Americans voted for Trump hoping he'd improve the country's economy and address the cost-of-living crisis. For example, one of the main proposals was to make ICE bigger and use it to deport as many people as possible, hoping it'd give back jobs to Americans. Another key proposal was to withdraw from climate agreements and stimulate the mining industry.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#222

Post by pembrook »

sofixa wrote: post #201
pembrook wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's currently no real democracy on earth. Issues with majority support never change in almost all of the biggest democracies in the world right now. For the US specifically its a representative oligopoly with Madisonian gridlock and a few million non-elected bureaucrats thrown in the middle. The US gives the smallest amount of say to people to pick either Coke or Pepsi. Don't like sugary soda and think its making…

> There's currently no real democracy on earth. That's a claim. Switzerland is so democratic they refused to let women vote until the 1990s (in the last canton) because the voters (men) didn't allow that. It's my go-to example of how direct democracy has pitfalls too.

So you think a country that didn't allow 50% of the population to vote was "democratic?"

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#223

Post by baq »

rustcleaner wrote: post #148
temporaryacc2 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safety handwringing? Mythos found 1000 zero days in a few weeks - if I had asked your thoughts on this a few years ago, I'm sure it would've been "that is a super-weapon". Plus, scaling laws are impossible to deny: More compute = more intelligence. AI is going to completely redefine the role of human cognitive ability - if you think this is about "state monopoly", you're really thinking too small.

I want that intelligence in my living room working for me. I do not think Dario, Altman, or the state should get a monopoly on it.

yeah but they don't want you to and it isn't Dario and sama I've got in mind when I say they.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#224

Post by baq »

saberience wrote: post #143
simianwords wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully agree and this other side of excessive scepticism people are ruining it for everyone else. They are a big distraction. They keep saying things like: - Anthropic is just doing this for marketing stunt - AI is like NFT's - circular deals - the bubble will burst anytime soon - the hype bro's are propping up the stock market so that they can exit quick like grifters (I just made the last one up to force terminolo…

[flagged]

it's an explanation, but you have to have tunnel vision to think this is the only explanation.

I think they truly believe what they say when they say it's a very dangerous piece of tech and from their wargamed scenarios they figured they really need to be first or shit properly hits the fan - and I agree. their need for money assuming scaling trend holds is transient if they're first.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#226

Post by boppo1 »

temporaryacc2 wrote: post #177
qsera wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I am one of them, and I am thankful for the people who are true believers of AI marketing. Your payments and subscription keeps the LLMS free for people like me who use it as a better search and use it to learn a lot of new things that had no good documentation. I don't worry about losing my job. I worry about becoming useless. If you know what I am saying..

If you do not pay for access to the latest models, your experience with AI is a 6-12 month lagging indicator as to current capabilities. Therefore, it is impossible to have a conversation with you about AI capabilities, because you are anchored on a ceiling that we've long since exceeded.

I pay for codex & claude. Both out-code me but I'm a novice. Fable is really good and shockingly capable. But they're still dumb as hell in various ways. They're faster than the best humans but they are not better problem solvers, especially for novel stuff like implementing SOTA 3D boolean algorithms in Blender.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#227

Post by yakshaving_jgt »

boppo1 wrote: post #200
dudefeliciano wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Riiiiight, it doesn't just make the bully invest billions in military grade weapons to be used against civilians. Soon you'll have superdrones with superguns patrolling the US and you will still be clinging to your right to carry a musket.

2A people don't want the right to carry a musket, they want the right to those same superdrones. You are framing their desires in bad faith.

I find that incredibly hard to believe.

You're right they don't want to carry a musket, but that's because muskets are not sexy. They don't want superdrones either, because superdrones are not sexy.

2A people just like guns. Guns, culturally, are sexy.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#228

Post by boppo1 »

temporaryacc2 wrote: post #142
rustcleaner wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is really distracting because the main problem here is that AI is getting too powerful to be just handed out to normal people like us. We need a Second Amendment for AI: the right to keep and bear strong AI shall not be infringed. This safety handwringing is going to solidify the state's monopolies over its subjec... err citizens. The state is the farmer, and we are the cows.

Safety handwringing? Mythos found 1000 zero days in a few weeks - if I had asked your thoughts on this a few years ago, I'm sure it would've been "that is a super-weapon". Plus, scaling laws are impossible to deny: More compute = more intelligence. AI is going to completely redefine the role of human cognitive ability - if you think this is about "state monopoly", you're really thinking too small.

Yes, I want that 'super weapon' in everyone's hands. Better than the hands of a few. Same thing as literacy. I believe in the power of the do-gooders to overwhelm the do-badders.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#229

Post by thepasch »

cm2187 wrote: post #55
johnwheeler wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

XAI rents out compute to anthropic. I feel like Sam Altman is behind this that little rat.

How is that going to help him? "Our models are so inferior they are not deemed a threat unlike anthropic's"? I think it is either a missile directed at anthropic, as retribution for not giving the DoD what it wants, in which case it is likely to resolve pretty quickly. Or it is a shift of policy toward export restrictions on powerful LLM and then every model will be impacted as they reach the threshold. In which case…

> How is that going to help him? "Our models are so inferior they are not deemed a threat unlike anthropic's"?

Do you honestly think that this - logic and reason - is going to stop anyone from hyping whatever nonsense he comes up with to the moon and back anyway? Right after the SpaceX IPO of all things?

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#230

Post by boppo1 »

dpe82 wrote: post #133
agnosticmantis wrote: post #78

Counterintuitively, this is a huge win for misAnthropic and other closed labs in the US. They can nerf the models, ask for IDs from users and do what it takes to comply with whatever regulation they've been fighting for. Foreign labs releasing open source models won't be able to comply, and as a result open source models will remain stunted at pre-mythos levels or their use will be criminalized. We should look past t…

Why would foreign (relative to the US) models suddenly sit still? There's enormous incentive to improve; surely they'll be able to figure out how just like their American counterparts? We've seen this movie before with crypto export bans in the 90s. The rest of the world caught up and then surpassed the US very quickly - and that was without the enormous financial incentives of AI.

The US will try to ban them, for being too dangerous or for being an IP violation[0] of some companies we've deemed too big to fail.

[0] lmao how ironic

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