Maybe I'm just old school but I prefer to buy the rocket business without a social network attached.
Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
981–990 of 1001 posts
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#982Earlier quoted context omitted.
They will defend it the way any good monopoly always does: buying the competition. Case in point is Facebook: it is just a social network, the way they really stay on top is buying other companies and paying for people to spend even more time on their properties.
They bought insta and WhatsApp but at the time neither were really social networks. Insta was a popular filtering app. WhatsApp is just recently turning into a social network with their status updates.
That's a completely revisionist take. These apps were seen as the next wave of social networks that would compete with Facebook when it bought them.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#983All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?
Try to keep perspective, these valuations are just functions of the stock market the end result of some spreadsheet. They have nothing to do with quality of life. Why would you relate those two things in the first place?
In the long run stock prices are justified by sales which happen by producing things people want.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#984Earlier quoted context omitted.
Definitely not. What Spacex/Elon are doing is sketchy as hell. But the numbers involved here are not terribly meaningful for your portfolio. At IPO, $75B of Spacex shares will be bought/sold. The S&P 500 uses float-adjusted weightings, and the current float-adjusted total is $54T. If you are 100% invested in SPY, then about 0.14% of your holdings will be spacex on IPO day (75B/54T~=0.14%). Obviously Musk and friends…
I dunno won't index funds be forced to sell other stocks to buy these IPOs? Won't that possibly trigger a market crash if the IPO stocks loses a lot of value very fast after the IPO on top of investors predicting this fact and selling shares of other companies? I dunno, the logical explanation makes sense, but markets don't work on logic especially on the short term. People fearing what other people will do and act i…
[flagged]
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#985Earlier quoted context omitted.
The way I understand my money market settlement account at vanguard, is that it's all, or nearly all, treasuries. Treasury not honoring government debt would be the worst bank failure in the history of the world.
It would be bad for you, but you also deserve that because you have made a deal with the government to enslave young people to pay taxes on their labour in order to pay interest to you . Loosing all your investments in a bond default would be a very fitting consequence for what you have done so wickedly.
I am one of those young people laboring and paying taxes. It's not clear to me what I should do with the surplus of my labor that is available to me, that would be acceptable to a worldview like you seem to be espousing.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#986Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#987Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.
What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more. I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits
Open weights are only valuable to people who have access to expensive hardware to run them on. Treating Anthropic as a service that lets you rent such hardware (there are multiple products that a single token operates on) is also where Anthropics investment and reinvestment applies.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#988Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.
Looks like it'll be more like $2t https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-ca...
To assess where a event betting platform has placed their lines is in no way useful here. Perhaps you are only fishing for people to pile onto the other side of a bet you made or helping you to feel well about this bet you chose to make which would be an inappropriate use of this platform.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#989If I buy the SpaceX stock it's 100% certain to go down. If I don't buy it it will rocket to the moon. Is there some sort of way I can positively monetise this?
Keep buying single shares slowly so it keeps going down. Once it reaches $0, buy the rest for free and asset strip.
asset strip to the moon, literally
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#990Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but it's the Americans that can least afford to be stood up as exit liquidity that have the most exposure here relative to their net worth. The ultra wealthy are going to be heavily overrepresented in the active basket. Meanwhile the folks lower down on the income scale are more likely to have their money in passive funds.
> The ultra wealthy are going to be heavily overrepresented in the active basket. Do you have evidence to substantiate this claim? My brief research has shown the wealthier the investor, the likelier they are to use a passive strategy.
What levels of wealth are you referring to. I could believe that a doctor or lawyer is more likely to use passive strategies compared to a retail worker, who might just have a small Robinhood account for gambling. But the levels I am talking about are the ultra wealthy vs the middle class. Elon is not using passive index investing for any meaningful amount of his net worth. The vast majority of that is in his companies, which is not a passive investment. The same holds true most of the other ultra wealthy. And the top 1% controls about half the wealth in this country. So I think it is fair to say that they are going to be overrepresented in the active basket.