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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#521

Post by redox99 »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

Now that Moores law is dead I think GPUs will depreciate a lot slower. I mean there's already a lot of hardware that has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#522

Post by dzhiurgis »

gman83 wrote: post #483
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This seems like straight up fraud? Presumably all to bail out early investors?

And if it's not fraud, it's fascism

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#523

Post by Havoc »

willis936 wrote: post #340
s1artibartfast wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

Indeed. Everyone should be moving their funds out of target date funds right now and into medium and small cap stock funds. It's quite sad that the pillar of American life that is the 401k is given to shady fund managers. The law should be that if you manage a 401k you must be a fiduciary. If that were the case then no one would be bag holding these fake valuations because they'd be liable for negligence. Right now t…

The small mid caps are precisely what will get sold down here…

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#524

Post by energy123 »

AJRF wrote: post #514

If I buy the SpaceX stock it's 100% certain to go down. If I don't buy it it will rocket to the moon. Is there some sort of way I can positively monetise this?

Keep buying single shares slowly so it keeps going down. Once it reaches $0, buy the rest for free and asset strip.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#525

Post by derf_ »

pj_mukh wrote: post #491
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Okay before we set off the alarm though, can someone tell me What percentage of these index funds will be SPCX and TSLA? Like if both these stocks become penny stocks what happens to the indices? Isn’t the whole point that they are hedged across the whole market?

As of January, TSLA was somewhere around 2.3% of the S&P [1]. Because SpaceX will have so little float available, it would be somewhere around 0.7% if included.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#526

Post by Schlagbohrer »

testrun wrote: post #86
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

These AI companies will be able to jack prices way way up once companies and users are fully addicted to doing everything with their AI.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#527

Post by Havoc »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #431
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Starlink a generational leap in Internet connectivity. The Starlink satellite constellation is over 10,000 satellites. It is hard to comprehend. Also, they will soon add mobile phone service. That will be yet another generational leap. I watched a (sadly) short YouTube video about the SpaceX factory in Seattle (area) that produces one Starlink satellite per day . That is incredibly fast. That alone sounds like a gene…

Id be more enthusiastic if I could buy starlink at a valuation based on starlink. Instead we’re getting a shitsandwich of a combo stock with a pile of regulatory manipulation on top

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#528

Post by alexp2021 »

Npovview wrote: post #474
hliyan wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

We Uncovered a Hidden Wealth Transfer in the SpaceX IPO. You're Holding the Bag. https://youtu.be/sYA-z0Y8WRQ There is video explaining the process

Thanks. That's pretty shady and grim :(

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#529

Post by watwut »

matwood wrote: post #504
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

You shouldn't be downvoted because your point is completely valid. Matt Levine made the same point in the last Money Stuff podcast. These indexes are supposed to contain the largest, most significant, and in some cases all companies so people shouldn't be mad at the indexes for pulling in a company that's going to have a 1.5T market cap at IPO. Given the market cap, it would actually be weird to not have it in an ind…

The whole point of original rule was to have market discover price over time before adding a company.

It is absurd to blame "market" that did not had enough time to settle. "Bankers" are to blame for making this rules change happen.

It is entirely valit to blame people who changed the rules to allow this to happen.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#530

Post by sokols »

philipallstar wrote: post #511
kelnos wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is I'm already in a S&P500-tracking ETF, for a decently large amount of money. Selling it off would be a big taxable event for me, something I don't want to do.

Would you be taxed even if you put it straight into another fund? Genuine question.

Yes, because when you sell it, you get cash and profit. Profit is taxable, in Germany they tax it with 25% + Solidarity Tax + Church Tax (if you are a member of a church). After, you can go ahead and buy another fund, but in between you "shed" a significant amount of money.
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