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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#431

Post by throwaway2037 »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Starlink a generational leap in Internet connectivity. The Starlink satellite constellation is over 10,000 satellites. It is hard to comprehend. Also, they will soon add mobile phone service. That will be yet another generational leap. I watched a (sadly) short YouTube video about the SpaceX factory in Seattle (area) that produces one Starlink satellite per day. That is incredibly fast. That alone sounds like a generational leap in satellite manufacturing. (Oh yeah, and they have a somewhat less technically impressive factory in Texas that produces millions of Starlink antennas per year.)

Final sad note about Starlink: It is helping Ukraine to win the war. It makes their mid- and long-range drones almost impossible to jam. (Most short-range drones use fibre optics these days to avoid jamming.)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#432

Post by chicken-stew »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #409
thephyber wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s market cap is entirely about Optimus vaporware hopium. Similarly Space-X’s IPO valuation is about “data centers in space” vaporware hopium and “timeshare all the GPU time that Grok isn’t using”. There’s a trend with Musk’s companies.

The problem is the stock market is more divorced from reality than we have ever seen. For instance, why does Tesla stock still sit where it is? How could it possibly not be going down at this point? So many undelivered promises, major setbacks in sales, massive decreases to their sales forecasts… literally nothing has gone well for them in years and yet the price is still outrageous. It really feels like I’m just out…

This probably illustrates my disconnect from reality, but I’ve never understood why a company would care about share price once they’ve left the door. I get that the co still owns its own shares and can conjure new ones for sale, but why would those very infrequent events interfere with the day-to-day operations. In my (wrong) eyes, it’s like pro-baseball players trying to increase the value of their trading cards via their participation in the game. The team doesn’t matter any more, it’s al about what the card owner wants.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#433

Post by OtherShrezzing »

Bombthecat wrote: post #422
disillusioned wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because nothing about the IPO price has any resemblance to a fair market valuation, and if it's being propped up by this forced inclusion, even less so? The rules existed to fundamentally protect against a Potemkin village situation where an underwriter and some early round investors whip the valuation into a froth and raise against a rabid corps of retail investors who don't necessarily care about a PE ratio of 1,00…

[flagged]

Will those things not still be true after the standard 12mo trading window and GAAP profitability?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#434

Post by killerstorm »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

1. Valuation is based on the estimate of future profits. It has absolutely nothing to do with what have already been delivered. It's not a prize, it's an estimate.

2. There's a potential to optimize a lot of economic activity in there.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#436

Post by chii »

FriedPickles wrote: post #384
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

The money still comes from somewhere. In this case, those index funds will be forced to trim holdings of other companies. So it's cannibalizing other parts of the stock market.

which, if true, would make an arbitrage opportunity for a fund that explicitly excludes these high valuation targets but buys those trimmed companies (because for trimming to have happened, they must've been sold unwillingly and thus must be under-priced).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#437

Post by ozgrakkurt »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #119
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

> In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers

What a story this is

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#438

Post by sdevonoes »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

It’s because people value different things. I could not care less if LLMs make me push code faster to prod. Couldn’t care less if they improve my emails grammar. Couldn’t care less if they crack one unsolved math problem.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#439

Post by CookieCrisp »

ozgrakkurt wrote: post #437
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

> In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers What a story this is

What part is wrong?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#440

Post by bell-cot »

d--b wrote: post #257
Analemma_ wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, SpaceX already has that covered: thanks to the TX legislature, SpaceX shareholders cannot file shareholder lawsuits, you can only complain to the "Texas Business Court" or get binding arbitration [0]. [0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-21/spa...

People can surely sue the index publishers for removing the safeguards, or the index funds to take more risks than they were mandated. When money is lost in the order of billions, someone is getting sued.

> People can surely sue...

Would either published indexes or investment funds exist, if suing them for poor performance was anything resembling that easy?

I'm thinking "no".

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