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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#671

Post by etempleton »

riffraff wrote: post #359
OccamsMirror wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please summarize his argument?

The argument is, as I understand it: * Valuation of the sp500, the hyperscalers and Nvidia is (mostly) reasonable based on earnings * Build out of infrastructure is demand-driven, hyperscalers are not building just for future demand that would not materialize * OpenAI, anthropic & co can be overvalued but that does not mean there's a systemic bubble I think this underestimates contagion effects and the fact that dema…

I think the earnings are suspect and exaggerated. Hardware manufacturers are making real money now, but there is a big question if any of these AI companies can deliver profitability to match their current valuation let alone future valuations when they go public.

Hyperscalers are in big trouble if the build out suddenly stalls. Even Nvidia and Micron are going to see their value significantly trimmed if it looks like growth is stalling. With such concentration at the top of the S&P among tech companies and with SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI, three companies that probably burn a combined 50+ billion a year. The whole stock market will be a tinderbox.

The whole thing is so private capital can get their exit. Default rates of private capital are already at 6%. Banks are exposed so they are on board with the fraud.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#672

Post by randusername »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies

All infrastructure is not created equal. It requires a lot of mental gymnastics to argue that datacenters are public good with net positive externalities.

Actually, you could argue that these are anti-infrastructure since they strain the electric grid for everyone and reportedly make the surrounding area unlivable with noise pollution.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#673

Post by itake »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #119
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

People want to buy SpaceX, not Twitter, Tesla, xAI. Unfortunately Elon has been conflating the three.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#674

Post by daniel_iversen »

testrun wrote: post #86
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

Doesn't inference have very good profit margins* but all the losses come from training?

* For now, when they don't have to compete much against companies like DeepSeek who supplies inference at 1/10th of the cost

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#675

Post by gwerbin »

frankacter wrote: post #408
fourside wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

>Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules? They don't, while timing certainly benefits, and potentially was triggered by them and OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, these rules are not specific to only apply to SpaceX. FTSE Russell (Russell 1000/2000 etc.) Adopted "fast entry" for large IPOs. Eligible companies (investable market cap above Russell Top 500 cutoff) can join after 5 trading days (previously qu…

This is not a "why".

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#676

Post by Nasrudith »

Arn_Thor wrote: post #585
moffkalast wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

You've been told a lie. Productivity has increased every step of the way even as populations shrink and the elderly cohort grows. Most of those productivity gains, i.e. the added value produced by each worker, has gone to shareholders' profits. If we had a reasonable tax system that captured more of that surplus value (which mostly goes offshore and does not in fact "generate more jobs"), then we'd have no problem at…

Surplus value is a propaganda myth from Marx along with other trivially disproven delusions like LVT. Tell me what work is being done by whom in a wine cellar as the vintage matures after harvest?

"Reasonable" is doing herculean amounts of work as usual, as it is implicitly operating under a thief's logic that the target didn't really deserve it anyway therefore if I steal all of it I will be justified.

We see the same shit when regiemes 'nationalize' segments of the economy and then wonder why instead of miraculously getting better without the 'exploiters' things turn to shit and absolutely nobody wants to trade with them. Empathy such a foreign concept to them that they don’t understand why merchants refuse to trade with those who steal businesses wholesale. Whose only response when confronted about their crimes is lame whataboutisms and victim blaming.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#677

Post by paulryanrogers »

SomaticPirate wrote: post #66

No doubt these companies are woefully overvalued. But this won’t stop me from putting in orders for several thousand dollars of shares with at market open. There will undoubtedly be plenty of buyers and I expect them to gain rapid entry into the indexes which will unlock a flood of additional capital from 401ks and pensions

So timing the market?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#678

Post by vortegne »

jimjimjim wrote: post #271

I am actually curious in knowing an answer to this: Does anybody think this is a good thing? A benefit to the world? Not if anyone is cheating or scheming or being a rules lawyer, but is it good?

Is anything in late stage capitalism good for the world? Any and all benefits are accidental and temporary.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#679

Post by DanielHB »

rybosworld wrote: post #648
arrty88 wrote: post #605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should one sell their 401ks ahead of the forced buying

Definitely not. What Spacex/Elon are doing is sketchy as hell. But the numbers involved here are not terribly meaningful for your portfolio. At IPO, $75B of Spacex shares will be bought/sold. The S&P 500 uses float-adjusted weightings, and the current float-adjusted total is $54T. If you are 100% invested in SPY, then about 0.14% of your holdings will be spacex on IPO day (75B/54T~=0.14%). Obviously Musk and friends…

I dunno won't index funds be forced to sell other stocks to buy these IPOs? Won't that possibly trigger a market crash if the IPO stocks loses a lot of value very fast after the IPO on top of investors predicting this fact and selling shares of other companies?

I dunno, the logical explanation makes sense, but markets don't work on logic especially on the short term. People fearing what other people will do and act in anticipation is known to happen.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#680

Post by bluGill »

Arn_Thor wrote: post #570
hliyan wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

> Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock.

Maybe, most indexes do not have to follow the index. they just need to match the returns. An index fund manager has choice of what stocks to buy. However an index fund doesn't have enough managers to make many choices and so they normally buy just what is in the index. However all index fund managers know they are large enough that if they change their holdings "instantly" when the index it self changes the market will collapse and so the fund will under perform. Thus index fund managers are always trying to figure out what the index will do so they can start buying/selling stocks in smaller amounts before the change happens.

How each fund handles this is up to the managers. (and "total market" funds have less ability and need to do this)

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