Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

Post by kasey_junk » Thu, May 28, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC

jquery wrote: post #48

nostrademons wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

Couldn’t that same argument be used to justify stock market insider trading? The problem with insiders is not just that they can surface information, but they can actually manipulate the results. It’s why baseball players can’t bet on the results of their games, even if a prediction market guru might argue “their bets surface valuable information” or something.

Post by VoidWhisperer » Thu, May 28, 2026, 12:10 PM UTC

Marsymars wrote: post #66

frakkingcylons wrote: post #25

If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Maybe there’s a chance he can get pardoned before 2029 lol

> If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Kinda? It's not like people making an order of magnitude less don't get busted for crimes where they're stealing an order of magnitude less.

Post by breppp » Thu, May 28, 2026, 12:25 PM UTC

manarth wrote: post #74

breppp wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run a records company I assume this might be worth some money

It's not always enough to know what - the why is often important. For example, d4vd is a famous musician, and search stats may indicate his potential popularity and future record sales. Or the public may be searching his name to find out more about the body found in his car, and the subsequent murder investigation and arrest.

Post by drewstiff » Thu, May 28, 2026, 12:28 PM UTC

awongh wrote: post #34

nostrademons wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

The unfortunate thing is that, while their academic position sounds plausible on paper, just like with most crypto things it's just a money grab. How many crypto people (with legitimate backgrounds just like the founders of Polymarket and Kalshi) stood up and said big things about freedom and the unbanked etc., turns out they were literally just scamming people- there are so many examples besides FTX. Letting people…

Post by misja111 » Thu, May 28, 2026, 12:32 PM UTC

wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.