Meanwhile His Royal Highness is free to do as he please. Got even life time immunity deal as well
Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
61–70 of 234 posts
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…
People with insider information often aren't necessarily aware they even have it. "Superforecasters" are often just "good at predicting" moves within a given vertical, because they have expertise and exposure to the trends of that vertical, and are good at making deductions and extrapolating trends. Those people make money from prediction markets just as often as people with true insider info do. And the people they'…
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Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#63How could this be insider trading? Polymarket has nothing to do with financial securities. A bet on Polymarket is like trading any other crypto asset.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…
> Is this good?
it is good if the losers are voluntarily participating. They are not coerced (stupidity is not coercion) into it, and therefore, it is reasonable that they expected to win the bet.
The only problem i have with polymarket (and others like it) are that insiders can often remain anonymous. It should not, and if an insider earns, but their win requires they remain anonymous or face some social/reputational repercussions, then that should happen.
Therefore, as long as KYC is enforced for these markets, i would have zero issues with their existence.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#65I was curious how a man in Switzerland gets charged in the US for a placing bets on a site that doesn't allow the US to participate. The short answer seems to be that he stole private information from a US company and used that information to enrich himself. And then got that charge enhanced with things like wire fraud and transacting on systems involving US currency. And another commentor suggests that punishing ins…
You can charge anyone in the world with anything, the trouble is getting a judge to agree with you and getting your hands on the person you're charging.
The first problem doesn't seem to be all that hard in the US (unless the inside traders are part of the US government, of course), the second problem can be as simple as having Google organise an all-expenses-paid team activity to bait the subject into jurisdiction.
If the basis for their charges really is just that he traded in dollars, then this is yet another example why nobody should trust Americans and their currency when it comes to trade. I hope they can come up with something better than that.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#66If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Maybe there’s a chance he can get pardoned before 2029 lol
> If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M.
Kinda? It's not like people making an order of magnitude less don't get busted for crimes where they're stealing an order of magnitude less.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#67Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
We would be much better off as society if bettors and gamblers actually learned from their lessons. Unfortunately that's not how it works.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#68I was curious how a man in Switzerland gets charged in the US for a placing bets on a site that doesn't allow the US to participate. The short answer seems to be that he stole private information from a US company and used that information to enrich himself. And then got that charge enhanced with things like wire fraud and transacting on systems involving US currency. And another commentor suggests that punishing ins…
US charged and arrested a man in Venezuela so...
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#69So they hanged a nobody while the person who made even more with white house insider trading announcements by the president goes scotch free?
Trump's family and their cronies have a free pardon waiting for them the day they get convicted. Better wait until the next regime shift, spending money on trying to prosecute the insiders now is just a waste of everyone's time and money. So far Trump has pardoned the 1/6 insurrectionists without any consequences, pardoning someone for a little white collar crime is barely going to hit the news cycle.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#70Interesting to see that insider trading is considered illegal after all. When will the white house insiders see the same fate?
Well, you see, the house always wins