NSA employees must be the final boss of this kind of stuff.
Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
41–50 of 234 posts
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#42Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making decisions based on this?
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are correct, but you say this like the prediction markets are open about this fact. They aren't and if you ask them they will deny this.
I think they are open about it. John Oliver did a piece on it last month and I recall an interview where the founder of one of these prediction markets shared this as a beneficial effect of the product.
I once asked in Kalshi subreddit if insider trading was the entire point and my post was removed by the mods..
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#44Why are we wasting government money cracking down on Polymarket betting? The most offensive thing in this article is the government pretending Polymarket bets are securities. Prediction markets provide no benefit to society and don't need to exist.
Isn't that stock market a prediction market?
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
Sure, but let’s consider the bet the accused took: who is the most searched person in 2025. What benefit is there in knowing this ahead of time? Who is making decisions based on this?
If you run a records company I assume this might be worth some money
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s the academic theory behind these markets, but there’s no actual value to knowing who the most searched celebrity will be or any of this other garbage. It’s just an unregulated casino with guesses about the popularity of Google searches instead of guessing black or red.
If it's unregulated, how are people getting charged with insider trading?
If 0.01% of people engaging in insider trading are caught and prosecuted, it is effectively unregulated.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#47That's aweful, only senators should be allowed to do that!
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Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#48Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
Couldn’t that same argument be used to justify stock market insider trading? The problem with insiders is not just that they can surface information, but they can actually manipulate the results. It’s why baseball players can’t bet on the results of their games, even if a prediction market guru might argue “their bets surface valuable information” or something.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…
It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…
Yep. It’s basically how Wall Street functioned before regulations showed up to protect the public.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#50So are we going to regulate these things or what?
See also: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/how-prediction-markets...