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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#431

Post by NotCamelCase »

navs wrote: post #371

I'm still astounded that Polymarket, as a feature, is embedded inside Substack. Not a third-party plugin but baked into the platform. YouTube is one thing. It's practically ubiquitous in terms of video sharing but Polymarket?

ETrade also started recently to include that disgusting thing in their News feed for watch lists -- as if it can really predict anything, with no way to turn it off (AFAICT). It's clear that it's being pushed in many directions.

Complete shamelessness all around.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#432

Post by mrtksn »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Sounds like a solution structured the wrong way, the world should leave alone people who don’t commit crimes and take care of the people who manipulate the world in horribly destructive ways instead of limiting what law abiding citizens can do. These people who use their power to manipulate bets are almost always not corrupted by polymarket, but they were already criminals.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#433

Post by tigrezno »

ceasesurthinko wrote: post #259

Yet blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services for a couple hours for La Liga futbol. Spain is a backwards country

You talk like it's the government who is blocking those ips. It's a stupid right wing judge, friend of La Liga's owner who is allowing such a scheme.

Spanish congress approved recently a way to stop such a thing.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#434

Post by [deleted] »

energy123 wrote: post #421
charcircuit wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Murder and arson are illegal. Just because there is an event contract that doesn't make them legal to do.

There's many true crime cases where the spouse took out multiple life insurance policies then did the killing to earn money. It's a bounty. We should care about the effect in practice.

[deleted]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#435

Post by satvikpendem »

hunterpayne wrote: post #288
satvikpendem wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can actually consistently make money in the stock market, not so in a casino.

There is an entire profession of Poker players that consistently make money in casinos but not from casinos. You simply don't understand how this all works.

Difference is average people can make money in the stock market on a consistent basis, while even the best poker players still get banned.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#436

Post by satvikpendem »

HDBaseT wrote: post #403
satvikpendem wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can actually consistently make money in the stock market, not so in a casino.

Meanwhile a lot of people don't make consistent money on the stock market. If it was "that simple" everyone would be making money on the stock market, but its not.

It is that simple, invest in broad market index funds.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#437

Post by solumunus »

d4ng wrote: post #217
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

This is very naive. Many people have incentives to manipulate the financial markets, also with real world consequences. Should we ban financial markets as a result? Do you really think that there are no people, who have bet on the price of something in one direction or the other, who enact real world consequences on people or other entities in order to ensure their bet? This is par for the course.

Financial markets serve a worthwhile purpose.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#438

Post by solumunus »

d4ng wrote: post #217
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

This is very naive. Many people have incentives to manipulate the financial markets, also with real world consequences. Should we ban financial markets as a result? Do you really think that there are no people, who have bet on the price of something in one direction or the other, who enact real world consequences on people or other entities in order to ensure their bet? This is par for the course.

Financial markets serve a worthwhile purpose and can’t be gamed to the same degree as Polymarket. Polymarket enables completely absurd levels of dangerous manipulation, with significantly worse potential real world outcomes.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#439

Post by csomar »

compiler-guy wrote: post #57
chollida1 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…

The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure. Both of your examples are people protecting their insurable interest. Ownership is the most common insurable interest, but there are many other ways to have one. This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen, which avoids some conflicts of interest. These prediction market events…

Based on that logic, I can say I have a vested interest in the bet?

> This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen

But buying the insurance cancels exactly that. Insurance fraud is a thing.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#440

Post by tensegrist »

throwawa1 wrote: post #77
croes wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

something is deeply wrong with some humans

Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"

…bounty hunting?
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