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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#281
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…

Yeah, you are being pedantic. The clear meaning is that you're not just allowed to insure arbitrary properties.

If you wanted to correct a misconception, you should provide a better, more complete understanding, not just express frustration about a misconception that doesn't even exist outside of an uncharitable reading.

In this case, that means refining the point to the more accurate model, that you need an insurable interest -- i.e. reason you don't want the event to happen, even knowing you'd get a payout[1]. Your counterexamples only work as such because that exists![2] If you want to fix all the people who don't have your superior understanding, that would have been a great way to help them out.

>I'm not sure where this false premise started but alot of people believe it.

It exists because it's approximately true: you can't get insurance on 99.99999% of buildings in the world because you have no insurable interest in them. And any time someone could correct that false premise, they probably just complain rather than providing the complete understanding -- exactly the choice you just made here.

[1] IMO, this is the natural dividing line between gambling and insurance https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13916088

[2] Edit: And in your building collateral example, the policy would prevent you from double dipping -- getting both the building and the full payout.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#282
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I take it you have a problem with laws against murder, fraud, theft, etc. Aside from the government, who is it that you prefer to do judgment and enforcement?

[flagged]

> For example, theft is bad because it deprives you of your possessions. No need to invoke morality.

This assertion also hinges on morality. Why is being deprived of your possessions bad. You ultimately have to reach for an ethical framework to justify it.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#283

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

[flagged]

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#284
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't literally buy the future on a futures exchange either. What name would you suggest instead?

The futures market is essentially about selling now but delivering in the future, so the naming kind of works.

For commodities futures, sure. But what about e.g. index futures or weather futures?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#285

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

[flagged]

>We are adults, and we should be able to gamble on whatever the hell we want - even if you don't like it.

No. That's not how society works. Prediction markets have externalities that affect all of us.

If you want to gamble, you should be allow to do it in a small setting, on games that have no effect on the greater society.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#286

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

[flagged]

Relatedly, is it OK with you if somebody bets a few million dollars on your early demise?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#288
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, yeah, pretty much.

I can actually consistently make money in the stock market, not so in a casino.

There is an entire profession of Poker players that consistently make money in casinos but not from casinos. You simply don't understand how this all works.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#290
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can gamble on the stock exchange, just like you can "non-gamblingly" hedge certain risks by buying/selling certain financial products such as event futures. (Many insurance policies are structurally just that and are used for very boring non-gambling purposes!) I don't think you'll find a simple/useful answer by slicing the problem on that axis.

At least when I put money in the stock market, I own a piece of the companies I'm invested in. I get some small amount of voting rights. You don't get anything outside of winnings or losses from your bets on a "prediction market".

Sure, but most retail shareholders don’t make use of that right, and it’s severely diluted compared to preferred shares to boot.

That’s what I mean: Many things can be used in very different ways. These incentives usually matter more than the underlying things in finance.

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