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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#251

Post by munk-a »

loeg wrote: post #238
hmry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

Some of the prediction markets explicitly forbid payouts based on death. E.g., Kalshi refused to pay out "leaves office" when Khamenei was killed.

There are a lot of things short of death that we don't want to encourage either. There is a huge grey zone here that I frankly don't want to entrust to private entities.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#252

Post by munk-a »

somenameforme wrote: post #231
jubilanti wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. "We're just an intermediary between people" is a 100+ year old yarn that casinos and bookies have been trying to spin. If you're presenting a point of entry to a betting line and taking a cut, congrats, you're the house. Doesn't matter if you adjust the betting line manually based on intuition or algorithmically based on betting volume. Sometimes it doesn't get enforced because of corruption, but if this was th…

Polymarket doesn't take a cut. Their profit comes in transaction fees.

The mob boss doesn't charge me interest on my loan - he just really likes receiving expensive gifts from me.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#253

Post by loeg »

munk-a wrote: post #251
loeg wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the prediction markets explicitly forbid payouts based on death. E.g., Kalshi refused to pay out "leaves office" when Khamenei was killed.

There are a lot of things short of death that we don't want to encourage either. There is a huge grey zone here that I frankly don't want to entrust to private entities.

Sure, I'm not a fan of prediction markets in general either. Just responding to GP's specific claim about death incentives.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#254

Post by epolanski »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

These derivatives openly violate the Frank Dodds act, but the head of the FTC has said they won't act.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#255

Post by epolanski »

hmry wrote: post #11
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

I've seen contracts on whether California will burn this summer.

Any bum defending these contracts is to me either a shill or way too dumb to understand the concept of incentives.

Oh and there was an Israeli journalist that got life threats because he reported that an Iranian missile struck some place in Israel, and apparently there was a huge bet on it on polymarket.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#256

Post by mlsu »

PowerElectronix wrote: post #83
throwawa1 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"

The other side of that argument could be something like: "Dude, Khomeini better not be killed, it'd suck for me, an average iranian dude. I'd probably bet he dies so I can hedge my personal financial wellbeing for that case"

The average iranian dude is not going to send money to a company that has donald trump junior on its board of directors to 'hedge their bets' around the Iran war situation.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#257

Post by epolanski »

philipallstar wrote: post #35
hmry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?

Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual. That is indeed legally fine, though potentially distasteful. Polymarket is facilitating bets between people, not bets with the house. Gambling and insurance are both bets with the house.

To me this is technicality.

A bet is a bet, whether it's against the house or other people it's a bet.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#258

Post by epolanski »

WarmWash wrote: post #53
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. But some random guy will get his hair dryer to win a socially meaningless weather bet. It's not discussed often, but the liqui…

Half this board makes way more than the head of the federal reserve or the CIA director (225k/year).

There's plenty of people able to influence events to whom these barely liquid bets can still amount to huge pay offs.

That includes many CEOs whose compensation is tied to stock performance.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#260

Post by dreis_sw »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

They are certainly critically flawed at the moment, but I still feel that with proper traceability, KYC, etc. it would be a much fairer system than the current betting companies. It’s one of those use-cases where blockchain technology actually makes sense.
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