Live data from Hacker News

F-15E jet shot down over Iran

theguardian.com

141–150 of 1001 posts

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#141
post #46

Why didn't Iran use its capability to take down enemy jets for an entire month?

Speculation.

1. Iran was retarded and didn't preemptively strike US staging who had local overmatch and first mover advantage. Nothing to do but weather hits, chip away at regional basing and wait until US+Israel operation tempo goes down. Can't sustain surge sorties forever, especially with regional logistics wrecked. US pilots tired now, on stims, making mistakes.

2. Iran not remain retarded, was hide and bide, waited for US to get complement, gathering data / building tactics to squeeze out surface-air without getting glassed. Regardless, Iranian capability seems much less degraded than claimed. Who knows how many of the 20k+ targets hit was basically just drawing down highend munition inventory, which now forces flying closer on lower end munitions.

At the end of the day, Iranian mosaic forces are chilling in underground bunkers waiting for US+co to make mistakes. Consider Iraq, a much smaller country by every metric ate 5x more sorties from more carriers and sustained regional air campaign and fell because they hedged on centralized IADs. Granted most Iranian hits are precision munitions (more efficient per sortie), but we simply should not expect Iran doctrine built on distributed survivability to be remotely defeated relative to effort expended.

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#143

If the pilots are recovered we probably won't hear about it from either side for hours. Iran will want to get them a mile underground before they send out the B-rolls. If recovered by the US, they will want them out of theater before anyone knows better so they can't be targeted.

One pilot rescued. Only one seat spotted suggesting other one didnt make it.

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#144

During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement. At the time, Baghdad was known to have the highest density of SAM protection out of any city in the world. An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.

Surely SAMs have improved since 1991? Have the F-15s improved significantly? (I know nothing about military stuff.)

They certainly have, but the general idea is to first use stealth jets to bomb defensive systems (including radar observability) to conquer the skies, and then you can fly around somewhat freely. While SAM technology has improved, so have America's observability and stealth bombing capabilities. It will be interesting to learn the context and sequence of events which led to an F-15 being shot down by enemy fire.

(In 1991, the United States relied on the F-117 Nighthawk to penetrate Baghdad and launch salvos against radar and SAM sites. Simultaneously, Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired against similar communication and defense sites. In this war with Iran, the F-35 and B-2 have been used for stealth missions).

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#145
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US military is in the middle of a top-level political purge; both honesty and competence as an institution will be below normal levels for the forseeable future, and honesty about sensitive operations during wartime is never much even as a baseline.

[flagged]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purge

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#146

During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement. At the time, Baghdad was known to have the highest density of SAM protection out of any city in the world. An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.

Iran has systems they can pull out of a cave and deploy in a couple hours or less. We will never get all their anti air out.

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely SAMs have improved since 1991? Have the F-15s improved significantly? (I know nothing about military stuff.)

They certainly have, but the general idea is to first use stealth jets to bomb defensive systems (including radar observability) to conquer the skies, and then you can fly around somewhat freely. While SAM technology has improved, so have America's observability and stealth bombing capabilities. It will be interesting to learn the context and sequence of events which led to an F-15 being shot down by enemy fire. (In…

Turns out Iran is good at hiding stuff in caves and driving it out on a truck platform. Who would have known?

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#148
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But he did publicly declare his intention to commit war crimes.

In case anyone else doubted this, I will save you the time to look it up. Yup, it's sadly true. https://www.commondreams.org/news/hegseth-no-quarter-interna...

Yep. And war crime seems to have lost all meaning in the US.

But, even if you dismiss the idea of international standards, this is clearly very bad for US soldiers (and sailors, airmen, etc). I wonder if they see that.

Re: F-15E jet shot down over Iran

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prisoner exchanges are a pretty strong motivator for any group, even hardline ones. If the Taliban was up for exchanges I think the IRGC is pretty likely to want to keep prisoners for that too.

Does the US have any prisoners to exchange? Wouldn't we need boots-on-the-ground to capture enemy combatants?

Israel probably has some prisoners that Iran might want released, is my thinking?
Post reply on HN