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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#221

Post by originalvichy »

notatoad wrote: post #179
originalvichy wrote: post #177

As others have noted, the article is analysing the actual financial markets angle. For my two cents on the technical side, it is likely that any Western-origin shakiness will come from Apple and how it manages to land the Gemini deal and Apple Intelligence v2. There is an astounding amount of edge inference sitting in people’s phones and laptops that only slightly got cracked open with Apple Intelligence. Data centre…

>when the numbers come in from Apple: how large of a share in tokens used by the average consumer can be fulfilled with lightweight models and Google searches of the open internet is there any reason to expect that this information will ever be known outside of apple?

Accuracy wise we won't know the exact numbers, but insiders and industry experts usually are able to find ballpark figures that they share with the press. The alternative is the usual find out the estimates through competitors' lost MAU numbers in apps like ChatGPT for iOS.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#222

Post by Yossarrian22 »

xenospn wrote: post #131
marricks wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I no AI fanboy at all. While thinking computers will replace human brains soon is rabid fanaticism this statement... > AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. Also displays a healthy amount of fanaticism.

I don’t see this as fanaticism at all. No one could predict a billion people mindlessly scrolling tiktok in 2007. This is going to happen again, only 10x. Faster and more addictive, with content generated on the fly to be so addictive, you won’t be able to look away.

Vine was around then

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#223

Post by mschuster91 »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #164
lairv wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

> I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

These days you have AI bots doing sentiment based training.

If you ask me... all these excesses are a clear sign for one thing, we need to drastically rein in the stonk markets. The markets should serve us, not the other way around.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#224

Post by djsjajah »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #210
lairv wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024

Google did not use TPUs for literally every bit of compute that led to Gemini. GCP has millions of high end Nvidia GPUs and programming for them is an order of magnitude easier, even for googlers. Any claim from google that all of Gemini (including previous experiments) was trained entirely by TPUs is lies. What they are truthfully saying is that the final training run was done on all TPUs. The market shouldn’t react…

> including all previous experiments

How far back do you go? What about experiments into architecture features that didn’t make the cut? What about pre-transformer attention?

But more generally, why are you so sure that they team that built Gemini didn’t exclusively use TPUs while they were developing it?

I think that one of the reasons that Gemini caught up so quickly is because they have so much compute at fraction of the price of everyone else.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#225

Post by CoolestBeans »

smw wrote: post #171
reflexe wrote: post #142

According to nvidia’s 2025 annual report [1], 34% of their sales for 2025 comes from just 3 customers. Additionally, they mentioned that customers can cancel purchases with little to no penalty and notice [2]. This is not unique for hardware companies, but to think that all it takes is just one company to get their sales down by 12% (14b$). To cut to the point, my guess is that nvidia is not sustainable, and at some…

I have lots of skepticism about everything involved in this, but on this particular point: It's a bit like TSMC: you couldn't buy space on $latestGen fab because Apple had already bought it all. Many companies would have very much liked to order H200s and weren't able to, as they were all pre-sold to hyperscalers. If one of them stopped buying, it's very likely they could sell to other customers, though there might b…

Its probably not very likely that if a large buyer pulled out, NVIDIA could just sell to other customers. If a large buyer pulls out, that's a massive signal to everyone else to begin cutting costs as well. The large buyer either knows something everyone else doesn't, or knows something that everyone else has already figured out. Either way, the large buyer pulling out signals "I don't think the overall market is large enough to support this amount of compute at these prices at current interest rates" and everybody is doing the same math too.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#226

Post by [deleted] »

MrDarcy wrote: post #207
kortilla wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren’t yet because the big providers that paid for all of this GPU capacity aren’t profitable yet. They continually leap frog each other and shift around customers which indicates that the current capacity is already higher than what is required for what people actually pay for.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t profitable?

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#227

Post by lorddumpy »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #100
Ekaros wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

I wonder, is the quality of AI answers going up over time or not? Last weekend I spent a lot of time with Preplexity trying to understand why my SeqTrack device didn't do what I wanted it to do and seems Perplexity had a wrong idea of how the buttons on the device are laid out, so it gave me wrong or confusing answers. I spent literally hours trying to feed it different prompts to get an answer that would solve my pr…

With vision models (SOTA models like Gemini and ChatGPT can do this), you can take a picture/screenshot of the button layout, upload it, and have it work from that. Feeding it current documentation (eg a pdf of a user manual) helps too.

Referencing outdated documentation or straight up hallucinating answers is still an issue. It is getting better with each model release though

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#228

Post by lorddumpy »

Ronsenshi wrote: post #124
infecto wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have still been unable to see how folks connect AI to Crypto. Crypto never connected with real use cases. There are some edge cases and people do use it but there is not a core use. AI is different and businesses are already using it a lot. Of course there is hype, it’s not doing all the things the talking heads said but it does not mean immense value is not being generated.

It's an analogy, it doesn't have to map 1:1 to AI. The point is that current situation around AI looks kind of similar to the situation and level of hype around Crypto when it was still growing: all the "ledger" startups, promises of decentralization, NFTs in video games and so on. We are somewhere around that point when it comes to AI.

I agree with the all the startups but AI is already much more useful in everyday tasks vs crypto.

Eg: A chatbot assistant is much more tangible to the regular joe than blockchain technology

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#229

Post by pixl97 »

lazide wrote: post #216
pixl97 wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building a new data center and getting power takes years to double your capacity. Swapping out out a rack that is twice as fast takes very little time in comparison.

Huh? What does your statements have to do with what I’m saying? I’m just pointing out changing it out at 5 years is likely cheaper than at 3 years.

Depends at the rate of growth of the hardware. If your data center is full and fully booked, and hardware is doubling in speed every year it's cheaper to switch it out every couple of years.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#230

Post by MrOrelliOReilly »

recursive wrote: post #190
Loudergood wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is full of people trying to anticipate how other people are going to react and exploit that by getting there first. There's a layer aimed at forecasting what that layer is going to do as well. It's guesswork all the way down.

Personally, I try to predict how others are going to predict that yet others will react.

And I just predict how you’ll predict
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