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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

entropicthoughts.com

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#181

Post by kortilla »

selfhoster11 wrote: post #178
iLoveOncall wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

They already are paying off. The nature of LLMs means that they will require expensive, fast hardware that's a large capex.

They aren’t yet because the big providers that paid for all of this GPU capacity aren’t profitable yet.

They continually leap frog each other and shift around customers which indicates that the current capacity is already higher than what is required for what people actually pay for.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#182

Post by bigyabai »

richardw wrote: post #169
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I’m sad about Grok going to them, because the market needs the competition. But ASIC inference seems to require a simpler design than training does, so it’s easier for multiple companies to enter. It seems inevitable that competition emerges. And eg a Chinese company will not be sold to Nvidia. What’s wrong with this logic? Any insiders willing to weigh in?

I'm not an insider, but ASICs come with their own suite of issues and might be obsolete if a different architecture becomes popular. They'll have a much shorter lifespan than Nvidia hardware in all likelihood, and will probably struggle to find fab capacity that puts them on equal footing in performance. For example, look at the GPU shortage that hit crypto despite hundreds of ASIC designs existing.

The industry badly needs to cooperate on an actual competitor to CUDA, and unfortunately they're more hostile to each other today than they were 10 years ago.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#183

Post by mysteria »

iwontberude wrote: post #166
mysteria wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I wonder even if the LLM hype dies down we'll get a new boom in terms of AI for robotics and the "digital twin" technology Nvidia has been hyping up to train them. That's going to need GPUs for both the ML component as well as 3D visualization. Robots haven't yet had their SD 1.1 or GPT-3 moment and we're still in the early days of Pythia, GPT-J, AI Dungeon, etc. in LLM speak.

Exactly, they will pivot back to AR/VR

That's going to tank the stock price though as that's a much smaller market than AI, though it's not going to kill the company. Hence why I'm talking about something like robotics which has a lot of opportunity to grow and make use of all those chips and datacenters they're building.

Now there's one thing with AR/VR that might need this kind of infrastructure though and that's basically AI driven games or Holodeck like stuff. Basically have the frames be generated rather than modeled and rendered traditionally.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#184

Post by bmurphy1976 »

aswegs8 wrote: post #162
fooker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.

It's because they run 24/7 in a challenging environment. They will start dying at some point and if you aren't replacing them you will have a big problem when they all die en masse at the same time.

These things are like cars, they don't last forever and break down with usage. Yes, they can last 7 years in your home computer when you run it 1% of the time. They won't last that long in a data center where they are running 90% of the time.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#186

Post by bigyabai »

mysteria wrote: post #183
iwontberude wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, they will pivot back to AR/VR

That's going to tank the stock price though as that's a much smaller market than AI, though it's not going to kill the company. Hence why I'm talking about something like robotics which has a lot of opportunity to grow and make use of all those chips and datacenters they're building. Now there's one thing with AR/VR that might need this kind of infrastructure though and that's basically AI driven games or Holodeck li…

Nvidia's not your average bear, they can walk and chew bubblegum at the same time. CUDA was developed off money made from GeForce products, and now RTX products are being subsidized by the money made on CUDA compute. If an enormous demand for efficient raster compute arises, Nvidia doesn't have to pivot much further than increasing their GPU supply.

Robotics is a bit of a "flying car" application that gets people to think outside the box. Right now, both Russia and Ukraine are using Nvidia hardware in drones and cruise missiles and C2 as well. The United States will join them if a peer conflict breaks out, and if push comes to shove then Europe will too. This is the kind of volatility that crazy people love to go long on.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#187

Post by IceHegel »

I'm surprised more people are not talking about the fact that the two best models in the world, Gemini 3 and Claude 4.5 Opus, were both trained on Google TPU clusters.

Presumably, inference can be done on TPUs, Nvidia chips, in Anthropic's case, new stuff like Trainium.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#188

Post by iancmceachern »

bob1029 wrote: post #60
iancmceachern wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

Margins are typically not so razor thin that you cannot operate with technology from one generation ago. 15 vs 17 mpg is going to add up over time, but for a taxi company it's probably not a lethal situation to be in.

Tell that to the airline industry

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#189

Post by bob1029 »

iancmceachern wrote: post #188
bob1029 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Margins are typically not so razor thin that you cannot operate with technology from one generation ago. 15 vs 17 mpg is going to add up over time, but for a taxi company it's probably not a lethal situation to be in.

Tell that to the airline industry

I don't think the airline industry is a great example from an IT perspective, but I agree with regard to the aircraft.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#190

Post by recursive »

Loudergood wrote: post #180
readthenotes1 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

The market is full of people trying to anticipate how other people are going to react and exploit that by getting there first. There's a layer aimed at forecasting what that layer is going to do as well. It's guesswork all the way down.

Personally, I try to predict how others are going to predict that yet others will react.
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