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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#161

Post by mbesto »

Melatonic wrote: post #90
linkregister wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns. I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.

Source?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#162

Post by aswegs8 »

fooker wrote: post #146
mbrumlow wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not that they don’t work. It’s how businesses handle hardware. I worked at a few data centers on and off in my career. I got lots of hardware for free or on the cheap simply because the hardware was considered “EOL” after about 3 years, often when support contracts with the vendor ends. There are a few things to consider. Hardware that ages produce more errors, and those errors cost, one way or another. Rack spa…

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#164

Post by readthenotes1 »

lairv wrote: post #114
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors.

I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#165

Post by lazide »

zozbot234 wrote: post #96
lazide wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily if you count capital costs vs operating costs/margins. Replacing cars every 3 years vs a couple % in efficiency is not an obvious trade off. Especially if you can do it in 5 years instead of 3.

You can sell the old, less efficient GPUs to folks who will be running them with markedly lower duty cycles (so, less emphasis on direct operational costs), e.g. for on-prem inference or even just typical workstation/consumer use. It ends up being a win-win trade.

Then you’re dealing with a lot of labor to do the switches (and arrange sales of used equipment), plus capital float costs while you do it.

It can make sense at a certain scale, but it’s a non trivial amount of cost and effort for potentially marginal returns.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#166

Post by iwontberude »

mysteria wrote: post #84
nospice wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now. Meanwhile, the…

Personally I wonder even if the LLM hype dies down we'll get a new boom in terms of AI for robotics and the "digital twin" technology Nvidia has been hyping up to train them. That's going to need GPUs for both the ML component as well as 3D visualization. Robots haven't yet had their SD 1.1 or GPT-3 moment and we're still in the early days of Pythia, GPT-J, AI Dungeon, etc. in LLM speak.

Exactly, they will pivot back to AR/VR

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#167

Post by FergusArgyll »

gopher_space wrote: post #126
jwoods19 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“In a gold rush, sell shovels”… Well, at some point in the gold rush everyone already has their shovels and pickaxes.

The version I heard growing up was "In a gold rush, sell eggs."

Selling jeans is the one that actually worked

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#169

Post by richardw »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I’m sad about Grok going to them, because the market needs the competition. But ASIC inference seems to require a simpler design than training does, so it’s easier for multiple companies to enter. It seems inevitable that competition emerges. And eg a Chinese company will not be sold to Nvidia.

What’s wrong with this logic? Any insiders willing to weigh in?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#170

Post by belval »

aswegs8 wrote: post #162
fooker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.

Especially since AWS still have p4 instances that are 6 years old A100s. Clearly even for hyperscalers these have a useful life longer than 3 years.
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